MLB Picks

The Seattle Mariners and Atlanta Braves finish off a series on Sunday afternoon, and they are the early ROKU game, throwing out the first pitch at noon. The teams have split the series so far, and the Mariners won on Saturday by a score of 10-2. The Mariners are struggling to hang in there in the playoff race, while the Braves have started playing batter baseball over the past few weeks as key players have started to get healthy again. On Sunday, we have two struggling should-be aces, and the recent form for both guys suggests we could be in for some scoring. I am going to play the game total over 9 in this spot.

Luis Castillo and Spencer Strider are both far better pitchers than their recent results. Castillo is normally an elite second-half pitcher, but not this year. He has had 4 straight bad outings that are either short, give up a lot of runs, or both. Those 4 starts have spanned 17 innings, and Castillo has allowed 19 runs and 6 homeruns in that stretch. Strider has been a little better over his last two starts, but that is following a 3-start stretch where he allowed 20 runs. He, too, has a homerun problem, allowing 8 homers in his last 5 starts. There is a good chance that both guys could struggle again on Sunday, but even if only one of them is bad and the other is more pedestrian, that should still be enough to get us over the total. I am fading a pair of struggling pitchers here and taking the over.

Mariners vs Braves Prediction: Over 9 (-105) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

In this game, we will see the San Francisco Giants take on the St. Louis Cardinals. These teams have split the previous 2 games. On the mound today, we have Kai-Wei Tang of the Giants and Sonny Gray of the Cardinals. Tang has had a difficult season with a 7.23 ERA and a 2-3 record. Overall, he has pitched 18.2 innings giving up 23 hits and 15 earned runs. These numbers are discouraging, but he will go up against a Cardinals team that is batting .212 over the last 6 games. While this may give some confidence in Tang, it is hard for me to trust a pitcher that has given up more hits than innings pitched. Additionally, the Cardinals hitting statistics improve in their home games, also leading to their 40-34 home record.

For the Cardinals, Gray will take the mound. While Gray has a 12-8 record, he has been wildly underwhelming this season. Through his last 23 innings he has given up 31 hits and 17 earned runs. If we look specifically at his home starts, he has given up 3+ runs in 4 of his last 6 starts. These are not good numbers when planning to go up against a Giants lineup that is batting .348 and averaging 8 runs per game over the past 6 games. These hitting numbers signify how close the Giants are to challenging the Mets for the final playoff spot. All in all, I have a hard time trusting either of these pitchers. Plus, if we look at recent averages the Giants are averaging 8 runs per game while the Cardinals are averaging 3 runs per game. That puts us at a total of 11 runs, so I am taking the over.

Giants vs. Cardinals Prediction: Over 7.5 (-120) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees continue their huge AL East showdown in the Bronx on Saturday afternoon. The Blue Jays won 7-1 on Friday night, and they have a chance to bury the Yankees in the divisional race if they keep going in this series. Make no mistake about it—the Blue Jays are legitimate contenders, and they have been led by a young offense. The key has been that the bottom part of the order has started hitting in the second half, which means you can’t work around Bichette and Vlad (who, by the way, went a combined 7 of 8 on Friday). The Yankees are, as usual, favored on Saturday, but the Blue Jays are the better team in general, and I love catching plus money with the better team. Give me the Blue Jays on Saturday afternoon.

The pitching matchup is Chris Bassitt vs Luis Gil. I expect both starters to be effective. Bassitt has turned in 6 straight consistent, useable starts for the Jays, and he has beaten the Yankees twice already this season. Gil has now made 6 starts since returning from the IL, if you throw out the first one, he has gone 5+ innings with 2 runs or less in each of them. So this game should come down to the bullpens, both of which are shaky at times. The Blue Jays, however, did not use any bullpen arms in Friday’s win, so all their best arms are available. The Yankees had to use Leiter and Doval, plus there is the Devin Williams thing going on, so I want to fade this bullpen when I can. In an otherwise even matchup, I like the plus money with the better team.

Blue Jays vs Yankees Prediction: Blue Jays ML (+135) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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I expect the Philadelphia Phillies to grab a win over the Miami Marlins as they face off Saturday afternoon in Miami. The Phillies are starting left-hander Jesus Luzardo who is set to make his 29th start of the season for the Phillies. It has been a successful debut season for Luzardo as a member of the Phillies following several years spent in the Marlins organization. Luzardo has faced this Miami lineup twice so far this season, but I still expect a strong start from him and view him as my preferred starter in this game.

Sandy Alcantara has tossed 27 innings with just 5 earned runs allowed across his last 4 starts combined, entering this game in the best form of his season. That being said, it has still been hard to trust Sandy in 2025 with his inconsistent performance and tendency to have a blow-up start. Even with his strong stretch of pitching recently, Alcantara’s season-long ERA is still an undesirable 5.66 mark. Look for the Phillies to win this game.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction: Phillies ML (-160) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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It’s time for some Saturday baseball as the Milwaukee Brewers look to keep things rolling in game two against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Milwaukee took game one with a 5-2 win, keeping their 5.5 game lead in the NL Central. Brandon Woodruff will get the start for the Brewers today, entering with a 5-2 record and a 3.69 ERA. The last time Woodruff faced Pittsburgh, he pitched four scoreless innings and struck out four.  

For the Pirates, Mitch Keller gets the start, entering with a 6-13 record and a 4.21 ERA. The last time he faced the Brewers back on August 13, where he gave up six earned runs on eight hits across four innings. The Brewers rank second in the majors in runs per game this season (5.1), so Keller will have his hands full this afternoon. Woodruff has struggled a little bit in his last two starts, allowing 10 runs in his last 10 innings pitched, but this looks like a good spot for him to bounce back. I like Woodruff and the Brewers in today’s matchup, making them my best bet of the day. 

Brewers vs Pirates prediction: Brewers ML (-150) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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I lean towards the over on the posted total in Saturday’s matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians. The posted total sits at 8.5 with the game being played in the minor league park in Tampa Bay, and I see an avenue for runs from both sides in this game. Shane Baz is set to start for the Rays marking his 28th start of the season. He did deliver 6 scoreless frames in the last trip to the mound, but his ERA still sit at 4.98 entering this game. At home he has been far worse with a 6.47 ERA in his 14 home starts.

Tanner Bibee is not in good form entering this game against the Rays, having allowed 4 or more runs in each of his last 8 starts made. With 9 home runs allowed in that span and weakened command of the strike zone in recent outings, a start on the road in the heat in a minor league park does not sounds like a recipe for success. Bibee has already been worse on the road this season with a 5.64 ERA in 83 road innings pitched.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians prediction: Over 8.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -110 odds.

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We continue a key AL West showdown on Saturday night on Fox, as the Houston Astros battle the Texas Rangers. The Rangers won the first game on Friday in extra innings. Both teams used almost the entire bullpen, and that could come into play on Saturday at some point. The Rangers are continuing to play without either Corey Seager or Adolis Garcia, and that has left the lineup quite thin, even if they are finding ways to win despite that. The Astros have recently welcomed Yordan Alvarez back to the lineup, but they have struggled a bit of late nonetheless. Still, I don’t want much to do with the depleted Ranger lineup right now, and I am going with the Astros to win the game and even the series.

The pitching matchup is a great one, as Hunter Brown faces Jacob deGrom. deGrom has been solid most nights for the Rangers, but he has also been severely limited in his pitch count. That, to me, is a problem when they deployed the entire bullpen the night before. Brown, on the other hand, is capable of working very deep into games. Brown has not given up more than 2 runs in a game since mid-July, and I like him to offer his team some much-needed length to take some stress off the bullpen. Putting all of that together makes me favor the Astros, and even better that it is even money as of the time of this writing.

Astros vs Rangers Prediction: Astros ML (+100) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Boston Red Sox will look to bounce back tonight against the Arizona Diamondbacks after dropping last night’s game 10-5. Boston has now lost two straight and needs this series with only a 4.5-game cushion in the AL Wild Card. Taking the mound for Boston will be Lucas Giolito who enters with a 10-2 record and a 3.38 ERA. 

The Diamondbacks will counter with Brandon Pfaadt who enters with a 12-8 record and 5.33 ERA. Pfaadt has had a rough season, and I don’t expect things to get much easier for him tonight. In his last five starts, he’s 1-1 with a 6.84 ERA. We know this Diamondbacks team is more than capable of producing runs this season, and in their last 10 games they’re averaging 5.2 runs per game compared to Boston’s 4.3. However, I like Giolito in tonight’s matchup and he should be able to minimize the damage done by Arizona. Look for Boston to pick up a much needed win, making them my best bet of the night. 

Red Sox vs Diamondbacks prediction: Red Sox ML (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

While not my favorite game from a betting perspective on Saturday’s loaded MLB slate, I do lean towards the over on the posted game total in the matchup between the Athletics and the Angels. J.T. Ginn is set to start for the Athletics, marking his 20th appearance and 13th start of the season. He enters play with a 5.17 ERA in 71.1 innings of work, and despite above-average strikeout production there is not much else of intrigue in his portfolio. I expect the Angels to produce offensively in this matchup.

Yusei Kikuchi has a respectable 3.83 ERA entering this game, but that comes after 11 earned runs and 3 home runs allowed within his last 2 starts alone. Those outings were against AL West foes in the Rangers and Astros, and now Kikuchi is tasked with another AL West opponent in the Athletics. While certainly an inconsistent offensive unit, the Athletics have enough power to make Kikuchi pay for weak command of the zone, and I lean towards the over in this game.

The Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels prediction: Over 9 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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It’s time for some Sunday baseball as the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees look to secure a series win. The Yankees are set to send Max Fried to the mound who enters with a 15-5 record and a 2.98 ERA. Fried has been terrific as of late, going 2-1 with a 0.90 ERA. 

For the Blue Jays, Max Scherzer will get the start, entering with a 5-2 record and a 4.11 ERA. Scherzer is coming off a rough start against the Brewers, but in his last three starts, he’s 2-0 with a 5.06 ERA. This will be the third time Scherzer will face the Yankees this season. In his two previous starts, he’s 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA against New York. This will be the fourth time Fried has faced Toronto this season, and in his three previous starts, he’s 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA. Both teams are very talented and it’s still too early to tell who’ll win the AL East. However, I like New York in this matchup as Fried has been the better pitcher, plus the Yankees have been hitting the ball slightly better averaging 6.4 runs per game in their last 10 compared to the Blue Jays 6.2. Look for New York to secure the series win, making them my best bet of the day. 

Blue Jays vs Yankees prediction: New York ML (-150) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs will wrap up their three-game series on Sunday, and we’ve got your prediction right here! The Nationals defeated the Cubs 2-1 on Saturday, and they’ll hand the ball to rookie Andrew Alvarez for the last game in this series. Alvarez made his first appearance in the big leagues back on September 1st, pitching five scoreless innings, allowing just one hit against the Marlins.

For the Cubs, they’ll likely roll with their bullpen in this one, giving Drew Pomeranz the start who enters with a 2-1 record and a 2.45 ERA. In the Cubs last 10 games, they’re averaging 5.0 runs per game compared to the Nationals 3.3. Alvarez was solid in his last start, I’ll give him that, but this Cubs team is a completely different ball team than the Marlins. At the end of the day, it’s hard to trust a team that has no shot at making the post season. Look for the Cubs to get to the rookie early on and take advantage of a weak Nationals bullpen, making Chicago my best bet of the day. 

Nationals vs Cubs prediction: Chicago -1.5 (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It’s time for some Saturday afternoon baseball as the Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs get set to take the field for game two of their series. The Cubs had little trouble in game one, cruising to an 11-5 victory. In Saturday’s matchup, they’ll hand the ball to left-hander Matthew Boyd, who enters with a 12-7 record and a 2.94 ERA. 

For the Nationals, Brad Lord will get the start, entering with a 4-8 record and a 4.34 ERA. It’s not an ideal matchup for Washington, as Lord has struggled recently, going 1-2 with a 12.08 ERA in his last three starts. Not to mention Lord last faced the Brewers back on August 3rd where he gave up three earned runs on six hits in just 4.2 innings pitched. The Cubs have the pitching advantage in this one with Boyd on the mound, plus they have the advantage at the plate since the Cubs are averaging 5.1 runs per game in their last 10 compared to the Nationals 3.6. Look for Boyd and the Cubs to get the job done and secure an early series win.

Nationals vs Cubs prediction: Cubs -1.5 (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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In this game, we will see the New York Mets take on the Cincinnati Reds. In last nights game, both teams were held scoreless after the 4^th inning. Some impressive work out of the bullpens. On the mound today, we have Jonah Tong of the Mets and Brady Singer of the Reds. Tong has only one game in his rookie season where he gave up 6 hits, 4 runs, and 1 earned run through 5 innings against the Miami Marlins. The Mets were able to come away with the win in this lone start. The issue with Tong is that he was able to stay in the game while giving up hits because the Mets scored 19 runs that game. I have a feeling that the Reds offense might cause problems for the rookie as they are batting .290 over the past 6 games. The Reds also put up 7 hits and 4 runs against David Peterson yesterday. I suspect we see similar numbers today.

For the Reds, Singer will take the mound. Singer has had a very good season when pitching at home. In his home starts, he has a 7-4 record with a 3.19 ERA. The Reds have also managed to win the game in 7 of his last 9 starts. Singer has also been impressive in his ability to go deep into games. He has gone 6+ innings in 6 of his last 7 starts. This is great news for the Reds as they do not need to worry about the bullpen giving up as many runs. The Mets also come into this one hitting the ball very well, batting .282 over the past 6 games. With both teams hitting the ball so well this one will come down to the pitching. I am willing to take the risk with Singer as I give him the edge over the rookie Tong. I am taking the Reds to get the win at home.

Mets vs. Reds Prediction: Reds ML (+110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Orioles defeated the Dodgers by a score of 2-1 in the series opener on Friday night. Saturday’s contest could yield another low-scoring affair. Baltimore’s Trevor Rogers is on a sensational run right now. After missing April and most of May, Rogers has posted an excellent 1.39 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over 90.1 innings this season. He has allowed exactly 1 earned run in 6 August starts that spanned 42 innings. He’s also been extremely accurate, racking up 41 strikeouts and walking just six in August. The Los Angeles offense has struggled in recent weeks, and Rogers should be able to keep things rolling in this one.

The Dodgers will send Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the mound. He is holding his opponents to a measly .187 batting average when pitching on the road, and Baltimore’s offense has not been very consistent this season. Yamamoto is coming off an outing in which he tossed 7 shutout innings against the Diamondbacks with 10 strikeouts and no walks. That should give him plenty of confidence going into this matchup. With a strong pitching matchup like this, look to the under.

Dodgers vs Orioles prediction: Under 8.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -125.

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The Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals play on Saturday night, part of the Fox national telecast. The Royals won 2-1 on Friday, as they continue to hang around the playoff picture. The amazing thing about the Royals’ run is that they are basically doing it without any offense. They have scored the 3^rd-fewest runs of any team and the least in the AL, yet their pitching continues to hold up and give them a chance. Only the Rangers have allowed fewer runs. For the Twins, they have now lost 5 in a row, and they are looking for their ace to stop the bleeding. One notable factor in this game is that Bobby Witt Jr. left Friday’s game with back spasms. I would expect that to keep him out on Saturday, and if he misses this game, I am definitely in on the Twins. My Twins vs Royals pick is the Twins on the Money Line.

Joe Ryan had a couple of ugly starts in a row, but he got himself right in his last outing against the Padres. I expect him to be in good form Saturday, especially if Witt is out of the lineup. There just isn’t much firepower in this KC offense. He will face Stephen Kolek. Kolek has made a bunch of starts for the Royals as he has bounced between KC and the minors to fill rotation holes. He has been perfectly adequate for the Royals, and the bullpen behind him has been a top 5 unit all season. Scoring should be at a premium on Saturday, and there is nothing wrong with taking the under here, but I am backing the Twins if Witt sits.

Twins vs Royals Prediction: Twins ML (-125) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The San Francisco Giants look to stay red hot against the St. Louis Cardinals tonight as they continue their push for the final NL Wild Card spot. San Francisco has won 11 of its last 12 games and will look to keep the momentum going with Justin Verlander on the mound. Verlander enters with a 3-10 record and 4.29 ERA, but he looks like his old self lately, going 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA over his last two starts. 

For the Cardinals, Andre Pallante takes the mound with a 6-13 record and a 5.38 ERA. He’s dropped six straight starts, posting an 8.67 ERA over that stretch. The Giants’ offense, which has struggled for most of the season, is finally finding a spark. Rafael Devers has a 1.232 OPS, six homers, and 16 RBIs over his last 13 games. Willy Adames has crushed seven home runs with a 1.118 OPS in his last 13, while Heliot Ramos is batting .333 in his last 11. This is exactly the production San Francisco hoped for when they brought in Devers, and it couldn’t come at a better time. Verlander shouldn’t have an issue against a Cardinals team that’s averaging 3.5 runs per game over their last 10, which makes them my best bet of the day. 

Giants vs Cardinals prediction:  Giants ML (-130) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

While not a game I am rushing to bet, I do expect the San Diego Padres to win by multiple runs over the Colorado Rockies this Saturday evening. The posted game total for this game is set at 12, and it makes sense given the weaknesses that both starting pitchers have. Luckily for Randy Vasquez he is tasked with facing this weak Rockies lineup instead of the potent and deep Padres lineup that the Rockies have to deal with. Vasquez is by no means a starting pitcher I often trust, but he has produced a solid 3.96 ERA this season across 111.1 meaningful innings for the Padres.

McCade Brown is set to start this game for the Rockies, marking his 3rd career MLB start. The 6’6″ right-hander has allowed 16 base runners and 7 earned runs in his first 2 starts spanning a combined 7.2 innings against the Pirates and Cubs. His command was off in both outings, allowing 3 walks in each start, and now he has to face a San Diego lineup that typically employs quality plate discipline.

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies prediction: Padres -1.5 (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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