Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/12/25

The Orioles hand the ball to Trevor Rogers, who has emerged as one of the American League’s most effective starters in 2025. Rogers has put together an 8-2 record with a 1.51 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Although it’s only been across 95.2 innings, Rogers has racked up 87 Ks and limits walks at an elite level. Over his last 7 outings he has been even sharper — showing the consistency and command needed to neutralize even strong lineups. Baltimore’s offense hasn’t been great but it’s been steady, with Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman anchoring a young group that thrives on timely hits and plate discipline. That combination of frontline pitching and balanced offensive production positions the Orioles well to control the flow of this game early.

The Blue Jays counter with veteran Chris Bassitt, who enters at 11-8 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over 161 innings. Bassitt brings stability and strikeout ability, tallying 157 Ks — although he can sometimes struggle with efficiency and allow traffic on the bases. Toronto’s lineup remains capable of putting runs on the board, led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, but facing Rogers’ command could limit their early scoring chances. With both pitchers capable of navigating the first few frames effectively, this matchup sets up as a controlled, lower-scoring start. Toronto is fighting for the AL East title, meaning these games will start to get a little more methodical. That makes F5 Under 4.5 runs the sharpest play, as Rogers’ dominance and Bassitt’s steadiness point toward a tight battle early before bullpens potentially shift the dynamic later on.

Orioles vs Blue Jays prediction: F5 Under 4.5 (-128) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.o.

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