Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/05/25

The Boston Red Sox send rookie left hander Payton Tolle to the mound for his second career start, and the 22-year-old has already made a strong impression. In his big-league debut, Tolle struck out eight over 5.1 innings, allowing just two runs on three hits and two walks, showing off a lively fastball in the 96-99 mph range and the poise to work deep into counts without rattling. That performance mirrors his rapid rise through the minors this year, where he struck out 133 over 91⅔ innings while holding opponents to a .203 average across three levels. While he’s still developing consistency and stamina, the early returns suggest Boston may have found a young arm capable of making an immediate impact. With a lineup that has leaned on Alex Bregman, Roman Anthony and Trevor Story for steady production, the Red Sox should have enough offensive support behind their rookie arm to stay competitive in this matchup. However, this is the Sox first game without Anthony — suffering an oblique injury that will sideline him through the rest of the regular season.

The Arizona Diamondbacks counter with veteran Eduardo Rodriguez, but his 2025 campaign has been marred by inconsistency. Over 92 innings, he’s carried a 5.40 ERA and 1.67 WHIP, with command lapses leading to too many baserunners and frequent damage when facing patient lineups. Rodriguez has shown flashes — such as a recent strong outing against Colorado—but hasn’t been able to string together quality starts, and his diminished strikeout rate has left him more vulnerable to hard contact. Against a Boston team capable of grinding out at-bats and capitalizing on mistakes, his margin for error looks slim. Given Tolle’s momentum and Rodriguez’s ongoing struggles, the Red Sox appear to hold the edge in this matchup.

Red Sox vs Diamondbacks prediction: Boston ML (-130) available at time of publishing. Playable to -140.

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