Boston Red Sox vs The Athletics - 5 innings total - Under 4.5 for Monday, 09/08/25

The Red Sox hand the ball to ace lefty Garrett Crochet, who has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball this season. He enters with a sharp 2.67 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 218 strikeouts over 178.1 innings — showcasing both elite velocity and sharp command. Statcast metrics further reinforce his dominance, with opponents averaging just 87.6 mph exit velocity and producing a modest 7.5% barrel rate. Crochet had the worst outing of his career last time out giving up 7 runs (in a win) to the lowly Guardians. The good news for us is that the few times he’s given up 3+ runs in a start…the following game he holds a 1.97 ERA. With his ability to control the strike zone and limit hard contact, Crochet has a strong chance to keep the A’s lineup quiet early.

On the other side, the A’s counter with rookie right hander Luis Morales. He has impressed in his brief MLB stint. In 6 outings (5 starts) he has delivered a solid 1.59 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, while striking out 30 batters—a rate of 9.5 K/9. His lively fastball and sharp breaking ball have overwhelmed hitters at times, although his lack of big league experience leaves some question marks against more patient lineups like that of Boston. Still, Morales has shown poise in high-leverage situations and has the tools to keep this matchup tight in the early frames. With Crochet’s proven dominance and Morales’ ability to miss bats, the most compelling angle is the First 5 Innings Under 4.5 runs. Both pitchers have the stuff to control the game out of the gate.

Red Sox vs Athletics prediction: F5 Under 4.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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