Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 05/11/25

In this game, we will see the Chicago Cubs faceoff against the New York Mets. So far, the series is split between these teams, making today’s game more important. On the mound, we will see Matthew Boyd for the Cubs and Griffin Canning for the Mets. Boyd has played well on the year but is content giving up a couple of runs. These couple of runs have been detrimental to the Cubs when away from Chicago as they are 0-3 with Boyd on the mound. It is also important to note that they often push him close to 100 pitches per game which means they may be willing to give up a couple of runs and keep him in the game. This is the exact opposite for the Mets and Canning. The Mets have won the game in Canning’s last 6 starts. At home, Canning has pitched 15 innings only giving up 3 runs. Canning is often pulled from the game after the 5-inning mark. This could also be because the Mets bullpen has been very good this year, having a 3.16 ERA.  We cannot say the same for the Cubs who have lost 4 of their top bullpen pitchers. This could be part of the reason that the Cubs bullpen has been struggling this year with a 4.57 ERA.

On the opposite side of the ball, both teams hold very similar batting averages on the year. The biggest difference comes in the fact that the Cubs have 20 more hits, and 38 more runs scored. Interestingly, these statistics flip if we look at recent form. Over the last week, the Mets have 61 hits and 34 runs through 7 games, while the Cubs have scored 23 runs on 40 hits through 6 games. The most concerning part is that the Cubs rank 28^th in the MLB when it comes to batting average over the past week. Based on this performance, we can suspect that this may be another good outing for Canning. Topping that off is the Mets 14-4 record at home and the better bullpen play. All in all, the Mets have a good chance of taking the lead in the series.

Cubs vs. Mets Prediction: Mets ML (-135) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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