Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 08/07/25

I am doing one of the most unpopular things in baseball at the moment: fading Paul Skenes. It’s not so much that I am fading Skenes, I suppose, as much as it is that I am fading the Pirates on a Skenes day. This man has an electric 2.02 ERA and a WHIP under 1.00, and yet his record is 6-8 because the Pirates consistently refuse to score for him. And look, I recognize that everyone loves Skenes right now, and rightly so, but it is also true that the Pirates are aggressively suppressing his innings down the stretch, and even the oddsmakers don’t think he will go longer than 6 innings. There is just no reason for the Pirates to be installed as such heavy favorites, and when the money line is this heavily juiced when they’re playing a much better Cincinnati team, who is also in the thick of a playoff race still, I just have to take it, Skenes or not. So my Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates pick is the Reds on the money line at a whopping +150.

The Pirates used a lot of their bullpen on Wednesday, and the key arms are the ones who gave up the runs in the loss to the Giants. The Reds have Brady Singer throwing, and while I admittedly do not understand why he is so good this year, the fact is that he has been rock solid for Cincinatti. Singer has only had a couple of bad outings all season, and the Pirates do not seem like the offense to enforce regression on a guy. The books have this game total set to 7 runs, and the implied odds see this as a one-run game. If you get to the 7th, 8th, and 9th inning and this is a 1-run game either way, and Skenes is already off the mound, which team’s ticket would you rather be holding? Give me the Reds all day, and even better with the current price tag. I like Cincy to win anyway, but the elevated odds make this a best bet for me. If you always bet spots similar to this, you only need to hit half of them to get way ahead. I’m in.

Reds vs Pirates prediction: Reds ML (+150) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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