Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Odds and Picks for Friday, 07/04/25

The Cleveland Guardians have dropped 7 straight games and will be sending Slade Cecconi (3.64 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) on the bump hoping to get the trainwreck back on track. Aside from the off-field distractions focused around Luis Ortiz’s investigation, this is a nightmare matchup for Cecconi. Detroit has been cooking with fire offensively, leading MLB in both wRC+ (136) and wOBA (.362) over the last 14 days. Furthermore, Detroit has consistently been a top-10 offense in the aforementioned categories against righties over the long haul of the season.

Cecconi’s underlying numbers suggest he is a ticking time bomb. He’s massively outperforming his 5.24 xERA and .274 xBA and falls in quite literally the 1st percentile in chase rate. Detroit starter Reese Olson (2.96 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) makes his return from the 15-day IL, though he has an ideal matchup to come back to as Cleveland ranks 25th in wRC+ against RHP and dead last in practically every major offensive category since mid June. With all things considered, I’ll take the Tigers to get the win on this Holiday slate of baseball.

Tigers vs Guardians prediction: Detroit ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to -140.

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