Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/30/25

It seems like the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians have done nothing but play each other every day for the past two weeks. At the very least, it is certainly the case that the Guardians won the AL Central because of their dominance over the Tigers down the stretch. The red hot finish for the Guardians was one thing, but the bigger story is probably the almost Mets-like collapse of the Tigers down the stretch after being the best team in the AL for much of the season.

The woes for the Tigers really boiled down to one simple thing: their offense was terrible. Their best hitters disappeared, they could not score, and they were striking out all over the place, even against soft pitching. What we do with this series, and indeed even with Game 1, comes down to where we settle on the Detroit offense. Will they continue to struggle, or will they snap out of it? This offense is mostly young, and that could make it hard to break out of their prolonged collective slump. Yet I am going to take a shot with them, and here is my thinking. I think they cratered because the pressure to hold on to the division got to them. In some ways, there was a big sigh of relief that they lost the division but still managed to stay in the playoffs, which did not seem like a likely outcome just a week ago. But they are in, their ace is on the mound, and they can relax.

Speaking of their ace, Tarik Skubal lost back-to-back games to the Guardians. I watched both games—Skubal was every bit the beast he always is. The second game in particular was crazy. He lost that game because of one dumb play on his part (the play where he hiked the ball between his legs and sailed his first baseman), plus a ridiculous string of infield hits that had exit velocities of about 40 mph. That’s what happens when you are struggling. Skubal will be fine, and seeing him that many times doesn’t make it any easier to hit the best pitcher in baseball. Gavin Williams, on the other side, blew the doors off the Tigers in 2 straight starts, fanning 21 guys in 11 innings. He may continue to succeed, but again, I am taking my chances that the Tigers will relax a bit, and maybe their hitting will self-correct. Give me the Tigers in Game 1 (and Skubal may be mad enough to throw 200 pitches if he has to!).

Tigers vs Guardians Prediction: Tigers ML (-160) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.