Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/04/25

The ALDS gets going on Saturday with the Detroit Tigers vs the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners closed the season strong, taking the AL West, and earning home field in this round. The Tigers finally got the monkey off their back—the monkey, specifically, was named “Cleveland”—and they have got to be feeling loose and free. Detroit fired its bullets to get through the Wild Card round, so Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, and Jack Flaherty will not be available in Game 1 (Skubal should get the ball in Game 2 though). Look, this is a tough spot for the Tigers, but here is the thing: we are getting +185 on a playoff team to win one baseball game, and the entire market is still flooding the betting window in the other direction. If Detroit somehow wins this game, Vegas wins big time, and I always want to be on the side of Vegas—they didn’t build all those hotels paying out money to people like us!

So what is the case for Detroit? Obviously, we can’t really love Keider Montero. Montero will work a few innings following an opener, and then the Tigers will once again stress their overworked and struggling bullpen. They simply cannot win a longer series this way, but Saturday is just one game. George Kirby is clearly the more favorable pitcher, and he has been throwing well down the stretch. Oddly, several Tigers have hit him well in their careers though. Kerry Carpenter, notably, is 4 for 8 with 4 homeruns, which is hard to believe. Then there is the annual problem of the high seeds getting an entire week off, and that most often works against them at the plate. Do I really think Detroit is well-positioned to win this game? No, I do not. But with a price this high, I am willing to chance it, especially with the regular problem of a rusty team after a week-long layoff. Let’s see if Detroit can win this one before handing the ball to Skubal.

Tigers vs Mariners Prediction: Tigers ML (+185) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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