Kansas City Royals vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 07/18/25

The Kansas City Royals enter the matchup behind the consistent arm of right-hander Seth Lugo, who has quietly been one of the most effective pitchers in the American League this season. Pitching to a 6-5 record with a 2.67 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, Lugo ranks among the top 20 pitchers in both categories. Over his last 10 starts, he has maintained a 2.37 ERA with 54 strikeouts, relying on his deep 10-pitch mix to generate weak contact and keep hitters guessing. The Royals’ offense has shown flashes, but with their lineup still inconsistent, they will lean heavily on Lugo to silence Miami’s bats and keep the game within reach. The Royals have been unexpectedly sluggish all year and the trend could continue coming out of the all-star break.

On the other side, the Miami Marlins send Sandy Alcantara to the mound, hoping the former Cy Young winner can rediscover his dominant form. Since returning from Tommy John surgery, Alcantara has struggled — posting a 4-9 record with an inflated 7.22 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. While his underlying metrics — like a 4.59 FIP — suggest some bad luck, command and sequencing have been recurring issues. Still, the Marlins believe in his upside, as his velocity remains elite and flashes of his former self have appeared. Backed by home-field advantage and a quietly competitive offense, Miami has a decent shot at pulling this one out.

Royals vs Marlins Prediction: Miami ML (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number.

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