Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Odds and Picks for Thursday, 07/03/25

The Seattle Mariners take on the Kansas City Royals in a matchup that consists of 2 starting pitchers in peak form at the moment. Seth Lugo (2.74 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) held a 1.26 ERA throughout 5 starts in the month of June while Seattle’s Bryan Woo (2.93 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) has surrendered just 2 earned runs in his last 19.0 innings pitched. The key difference, however, is that Lugo’s underlying numbers suggest it would be practically a miracle to continue at this rate. Lugo is drastically outperforming his 4.63 xERA and is bound to see some regression, and also falls in the 25th percentile or worse in xBA, fastball velocity, chase % and hard-hit %. 

Woo, on the other hand, falls in the 96th percentile in pitching run value with a quality 3.30 xERA and an incredibly effective fastball. Not only does Seattle have a slight advantage on the bump, the offense is significantly stronger against right-handed pitching compared to Kansas City. Seattle ranks 7th in wRC+ against righties while the Royals are down in 27th. With all things considered, I’ll back Seattle to get the win at home.

Royals vs Mariners prediction: Seattle ML (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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