New York Mets vs New York Yankees Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 05/17/25

The Yankees took care of business last night, beating the Mets 6-2. This afternoon the Yankees will look to secure an early series win, as they send Clarke Schmidt to the mound. Schmidt is 1-1 with a 4.73 ERA on the season and is coming off his first win of the year against Seattle, going 6.0 innings while giving up 3 runs and striking out 6. The Mets will send Griffin Canning to the mound; he is 5-1 with a 2.36 ERA. Canning has surprised many this season, but his biggest start of the year is about to happen this afternoon. 

Canning has faced the Yankees 3 times in his career, all during his time with the Angels, and he has yet to record a win against them. Today he’ll have to work through a deep and well-balanced Yankees lineup, especially with Aaron Judge and Paul Goldschmidt on board. Canning doesn’t typically go deep into games, but that’s not a major concern for the Mets — who have one of the most reliable bullpens with a 2.99 ERA this season. 

Even though Juan Soto hasn’t done much this year, Schmidt will still need to be careful when pitching to him — especially with a short right field. While the Mets have the slight advantage on the mound today, the Yankees have the stronger lineup overall. I expect Schmidt to give up a few runs, as he has done in most of his starts, but I think the Yankees’ offense stays hot and powers their way to a win in game two of the Subway Series. 

Mets vs Yankees prediction: Yankees ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to -135. 

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