New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/11/25

The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies finish up a 4-game set on Thursday night. The Phillies have won the first 3 games, pushing the Mets back to a nearly insurmountable 10 games out in the division race. More concerning for the Mets, who have lost 5 in a row, is that their wild card cushion is rapidly shrinking. It is a scary time for the Metropolitans, and their biggest issue this week has been the disappearance of their offense. Of course, that has been aided by incredible pitching efforts by the Phillies. On Thursday, I expect both offenses to show up despite having two strong starters on the bump. I am playing the game total over 8.

David Peterson and Jesus Luzardo have had excellent seasons. In both cases though, each pitcher has had some struggles with this particular opponent. Luzardo just saw the Mets a couple weeks ago, and he lasted only 4 innings and yielded 4 runs. It was his worst start in nearly 2 months. On top of that, there are 6 Mets who have had at least a dozen at-bats against Luzardo, and all 6 of them have found some success. Peterson hasn’t seen the Phillies since late June (4 innings, 5 earned runs), but it was his worst start of the season up to that point. Harper in particular has had success (9 for 22 with a homer). The Phillies have been raking without Turner in the lineup, and the Mets were the hottest offense in the month of August. There is a lot pointing toward offense on Thursday. I’ll play the over.

Mets vs Phillies Prediction: Over 8 (-120) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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