New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 08/20/25

The New York Mets send ace Kodai Senga to the mound, and he’s been nothing short of dominant this season. The right hander owns a 2.35 ERA and 1.23 WHIP across 19 starts, striking out nearly a batter per inning while leaning heavily on his elite forkball. Statcast metrics back up his success, with opponents managing just an 88.5 mph average exit velocity and a 7.8% barrel rate, making solid contact a rare feat. Even when he stumbles early, Senga has shown the ability to lock in, as evidenced by his most recent start where he retired 17 consecutive hitters after surrendering a first inning homer. While he’s been outstanding, the Mets’ inconsistency on offense and questions around their bullpen have left them struggling to fully capitalize on his outings, often forcing him to pitch with slim margins for error.

For the Washington Nationals, rookie Brad Lord continues to impress in his first season, balancing between rotation and bullpen work with a steady 3.26 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 91 innings. He’s shown composure beyond his years, limiting opponents to an 87.2 mph average exit velocity and only a 4.8% barrel rate, which points to his ability to induce weak contact. His most recent outing—a five inning 2-run performance against the Phillies—highlighted both his poise and his ability to navigate tough lineups. While Senga clearly holds the edge in pedigree and dominance, Lord has proven capable of keeping Washington competitive, especially against teams like the Mets that often struggle to provide run support. Given the combination of Senga’s reliability and the Nationals’ knack for staying close in games, my lean is on Nationals on the run line

Mets vs Nationals Prediction: Nationals +1.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -125

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