New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, Odds and Picks for Monday, 06/30/25

The Toronto Blue Jays won 2 out of 3 games at Fenway Park over the weekend and now return home on Monday to begin a 4-game series with the AL East-leading New York Yankees. The Yankees also took 2 out of 3 games over the weekend in their home series against the visiting Athletics. Toronto is currently 3 games behind New York ahead of this series with the Yankees taking 2 out of 3 at home against Toronto when they last played in late April. Monday’s starting pitching matchup pins left-hander Carlos Rodon of the Yankees against right-handed veteran Max Scherzer of the Blue Jays. Rodon did not pitch in that April series with Toronto and Scherzer will be making just his 3rd start of the season after spending a significant amount of time on the injured list due to right thumb inflammation.

Rodon has been extremely reliable for New York in his 3rd season, owning a 2.92 ERA alongside a 2.86 xERA, with xBA, whiff rate and strikeout metrics that rank in the 89th percentile or better. However, the Blue Jays may cause some issues for the left-hander as they’ve performed extremely well against lefties this season. Against lefties, the Blue Jays rank 2nd in BA (.272), 1st in OBP (.349) and 6th in OPS (.747). The Yankees obviously pose a significant threat at the plate themselves, but Scherzer showed some encouraging signs in his last start against the Guardians, going 5 full innings on 83 pitches while allowing 3 earned runs along with 4 strikeouts. This game should be closer to a pick ’em and I like the value with the Blue Jays here given their success against left-handed pitching. Let’s roll with the Blue Jays on the money line in Game 1.

Yankees vs Blue Jays prediction: Blue Jays ML (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable to +110.

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