Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 04/10/26

This matchup is as much about fading perception as it is backing the Pittsburgh Pirates. Shota Imanaga has been one of the clearest examples of positive variance over the last 2 seasons, and the correction may finally be arriving. For a while, the results looked pristine, but underneath, the warning signs kept flashing. His ground-ball percentage has consistently sat in the low 30s and has dropped to just 22% this year. That means too many balls are being elevated. Pair that with an 80% strand rate and one of the lowest BABIP marks in baseball over the last 2 seasons, and you had a profile heavily reliant on batted-ball luck and sequencing.

Even his FIP compared to ERA suggested the same story, as it was nearly a full point higher compared to his surface-level ERA. Thus, Imanaga’s underlying metrics were nowhere near as dominant as the surface numbers implied. Now the regression is showing. Imanaga enters at 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA, and there’s plenty of reason to believe the correction isn’t finished. That opens the door for Pittsburgh, a team poised to make real noise in 2026. They’ve already won series against Cincinnati, swept Baltimore, and pushed the Mets. This roster is improving fast and gaining confidence. Against a vulnerable arm whose numbers are catching up to reality, this feels like another statement opportunity for the Pirates. Back the Bucs.

Pirates vs Cubs prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable to +110.

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