San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/17/25

The San Diego Padres turn to veteran righty Nick Pivetta, who has quietly been their most reliable arm this season. Pivetta enters with a 13-5 record, 2.73 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 180 strikeouts across 171.1 innings, showing a strong ability to miss bats and limit baserunners. His mix of a firm fastball and sharp breaking pitches has kept most lineups off balance, though there are signs of regression as his hard hit rate and exit velocity against have ticked upward in recent starts. Against a disciplined lineup like the Mets, who can work counts and generate traffic, Pivetta may be tested more than usual. If New York can string together quality at bats early, it could open the door for run support before San Diego’s bullpen enters the picture.

The New York Mets counter with David Peterson, who has delivered a 9-5 record with a 3.77 ERA and 1.32 WHIP across 28 starts. While he’s had some uneven outings, Peterson has generally shown solid strikeout ability and improved command, allowing him to neutralize lineups when he finds his rhythm. His effectiveness comes from mixing a sinker/slider combination that keeps hitters off balance, and his recent outings have shown steadier results. Offensively, the Mets remain capable of taking advantage of mistakes, with their lineup producing timely power and extra base hits in key spots. Facing a tough starter in Pivetta won’t be easy, but with Peterson’s steadiness and the Mets’ ability to manufacture runs at home, the edge leans toward New York.

Padres vs Mets Prediction: Mets ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to -135