San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 05/04/25

Let’s cut right to the chase: the Pirates are installed as favorites on Sunday afternoon against the Padres. If you want to bet the Pirates at minus odds, be my guest, but this is probably as close to an auto bet as it gets for me. The Padres have won both games in this series thus far, and they will go for the sweep on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Pirates continue to spiral out of control — both on and off the field. They have lost 3 in a row and 6 of the last 7, and I don’t see much good going on there. My Padres vs Pirates best bet is San Diego at even money.

So why are the Pirates favored? It is mostly because the Padres are calling up Stephen Kolek to start. San Diego has been limping around with a 4-man rotation for a couple of weeks now, but on Sunday they will go with Kolek — and he is not very good. Thus the Pirates are favored with Andrew Heaney on the mound. Still, no current Pirate has an at-bat against Kolek, and the Pittsburgh offense is just awful anyway — ranking fourth worst in MLB for runs scored. Sure, the San Diego bullpen is likely going to have to cover more innings than usual — but it is, after all, the best bullpen in baseball, with an ERA of 1.79. Give me the better offense and the better bullpen, especially facing a team that can’t seem to get out of its own way right now.

Padres vs Pirates prediction: San Diego ML (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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