Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/12/25

As the ALCS gets underway on Sunday night, the Seattle Mariners head north of the border to face the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto got here as the top seed, dispatching the Yankees in 4 games, and doing a ton of scoring in the process—37 runs in 4 games is a lot anytime, but especially in the playoffs. The Mariners got here in dramatic fashion, winning a 15-inning Game 5, and having to win 2 games started by the best pitcher in baseball. In a lot of ways, this Mariners team feels destined to be the first team in franchise history to make it to a World Series. The Mariners are, of course, the only team in the league who has never appeared in the World Series. I think they do it this year, and I think it starts in Game 1.

Yes, I think Seattle will win Game 1. The entire betting public is going to flood to the Toronto side, and they will do it primarily because the Mariners used so many pitchers in Friday night’s 15-inning affair. But let’s take a breath here—that does not matter to any of the regular bullpen arms, who had a day off Saturday and are all fully ready to go. Yes, it burned Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo, but Bryce Miller is just fine as a starter, and while he is working on short rest, he only threw 55 pitches in his last outing, so there are no worries there. Let’s not overreact to the pitching crisis that really isn’t. (And, by the way, if Seattle can win just one game in Toronto will a couple of those stud starters waiting in the wings back in Seattle? Yeah, they can win this series.)

So why will Seattle win? First, this team is hot, and they believe they are going to win. Second, the core of their lineup has had success against Kevin Gausman in their career. Suarez, Arozarena, Raleigh, and Naylor all are hitting near or above .300 against him, and Rozy, Suarez, Julio, and Cal have all hit homers against him (Cal actually has 3). I think Seattle will find success. On the other side, the hot Blue Jay lineup is a real factor, but 4 solid innings from Miller before handing it off to the bullpen is a perfectly winnable formula. I like Seattle to win this game, and I love fading the public on it too. We are getting a price that is too good to turn down. Give me the Mariners to steal Game 1 on the road.

Mariners vs Blue Jays Prediction: Mariners ML (+140) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.