Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/16/25

The Texas Rangers send veteran righty Merrill Kelly to the mound, looking for stability in a tough matchup. Kelly has been steady this season with a 12-7 record, 3.21 ERA over 176.2 innings, showcasing his ability to limit damage and keep his team in games. Since being dealt at the deadline, he has consistently delivered quality starts, but his underlying numbers point to some cracks. Hitters have started to square him up more often, with his hard hit rate and barrel percentage sitting above league average, leaving little margin for error against potent offenses. While Kelly gives Texas a trusted arm capable of navigating deep into games, his pitch-to-contact style makes him vulnerable when facing lineups that capitalize on mistakes.

The Houston Astros counter with A.J. Blubaugh, a rookie right hander who has impressed in his early big league outings. Blubaugh has posted a sharp 2.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, striking out 25 hitters in just 22 innings while doing an excellent job of limiting home runs and inducing weak contact. Although still gaining experience, his poise on the mound has stood out, and Houston’s coaching staff has been careful to maximize his matchups. Offensively, the Astros bring a deep lineup capable of producing in clutch situations, and they’ll look to put pressure on Kelly from the start. With Blubaugh holding his own and Houston’s bats providing consistent run support, the Astros appear to have the edge in this matchup, making Houston the preferred play.

Rangers vs Astros Prediction: Astros ML (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130

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