Spurs vs Knicks First Basket Prediction & Best Bets for 2026 NBA Finals Game 4
Similar to the YRFI/NRFI market in baseball, you don't have to wait long when it comes to first baskets in the NBA. In fact, this is about as quick of a bet payout as you can possibly imagine.
This NBA Finals series between the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs has been electric so far, with the road team prevailing on every occasion through 3 contests. San Antonio picked up a crucial road win on Monday, avoiding what would have almost certainly been a crippling 3-0 deficit. Game 4 at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday night could hardly be more important for each team. Both sides will be eager to set the tone right away, especially the Knicks in front of their home fans following the disappointment of Game 3.
You can find out our NBA picks for every remaining game of the playoffs, but for now let's break down my Spurs vs Knicks first basket best bet for Game 4.
Don't miss our expert's Spurs vs Knicks Game 4 best bet for tonight's crunch matchup
Spurs vs Knicks first basket best bet: Stephon Castle (+800)
Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing.
The most important aspect of the first-basket market is to win the opening tip, because that obviously gives you the first chance at paydirt. New York's Karl-Anthony Towns actually managed to win the jump in the series opener, but San Antonio's Victor Wembanyama restored order to the proceedings in Game 2 and Game 3. It goes without saying that Wembanyama should win it every time. He is 7'4" with a wingspan of approximately 8'0"; Towns is 7'0" with a wingspan of approximately 7'4".
Unsurprisingly, the Spurs have won 78.6 percent of tipoffs throughout the course of this season – and it would be even higher if Wembanyama had not missed 18 games due to injury. The Knicks are lagging well behind at 51.5 percent.
If Wemby takes care of business in the circle, Stephon Castle should be looked upon as a strong first-basket candidate. Especially at relatively long +800 odds (5th among Game 5's 10 starters depending on the book at which you are shopping), San Antonio's second-year guard has great value.
Castle has attempted the game's first shot 13.6 percent of the time in 2025-26, which is 4th on the team but for all intents and purposes right on par with De'Aaron Fox and Devin Vassell (Wembanyama is predictably well out in front at 27.0 percent). The former UConn standout should be feeling really good, too, following his Game 3 performance. He went 8-for-14 from the floor for 23 points to go along with 5 points and 5 assists. His aggressiveness was especially impressive. Castle has attempted at least 14 shots in 4 straight games dating back to the Western Conference Finals, so opportunities should be there. Don't be surprised if he stays hot right away in Game 4 tonight.
Now check out our Spurs vs Knicks parlay picks for today's HUGE Game 4 at +480 odds, along with JutPicks' best Spurs vs Knicks Game 4 player prop bets, targeting De'Aaron Fox and Jose Alvarado!
