NBA Parlays

Apart from the Game 3 win, we haven’t seen much from the Milwaukee Bucks in this series. Game 4 was an absolute disaster, with Damian Lillard suffering an Achilles’ tear in the early stages and the Bucks could just never recover mentally. Giannis Antetokounmpo did his part with 28 points and 15 rebounds, but it appears that long gone are the days when he was able to carry an entire franchise on his back. As depressing as it might sound, it’s hard to imagine head coach Doc Rivers making any major adjustments for Game 5; the Bucks simply don’t have anything extra to offer that we haven’t seen already.

Indiana’s offense has been clicking this postseason run, with its only blemish being the Game 3 defeat in which it scored just 101 points. Indy actually leads all 16 postseason teams in mid-range field-goal efficiency at 53.1% — ahead of the Warriors, Lakers and Cavaliers. Only 28% of Indiana’s field goal makes have been unassisted; this is a true definition of a team. The growth has been fun to watch over the past couple of seasons, as many people doubted their East Finals appearance last year while blaming injuries and other factors for them making it that far. Going into Game 5 there’s just one thing on the Pacers players’ minds: to not give the Bucks any extra life in this series.

The Pacers are 15-2 SU in 17 home games and 8-1 SU in their last 9 vs the Bucks. They have also covered in 3 of the 4 games in this series, and after that Lillard injury the life has just been sucked out of this Bucks team. I’m just not sure they can recover so quickly. Give me the Pacers to clinch this one at home.

Bucks vs Pacers prediction: Indiana -8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The first 4 games between the Pistons and Knicks has arguably been the most entertaining and white-knuckle series in the NBA playoffs, and Game 4 featured a furious New York comeback in the fourth quarter en route to a wild 1-point victory. Now, with their backs against the wall after dropping both games at home, Madison Square Garden is about as difficult of an environment to throw this young Pistons team into for an elimination game — and we have seen that inexperience for Cade Cunningham and the rest of the Pistons in the fourth quarters of all 4 games thus far. Tuesday’s contest is a really tough spot for the Pistons, as they seem to be out of counter moves — while the Knicks should be able to tweak their game-plan toward what worked (playing in transition, forcing turnovers, running more offense through Karl-Anthony Towns) and what didn’t work in Games 3 and 4. Detroit has no clear answer for Jalen Brunson at this point, and we should also get better shooting games from OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges than what we saw in Game 4. On the other side, with Cunningham continuing to go through hot and cold spells in his difficult matchup against Anunoby and the Knicks’ perimeter defense. I’ll certainly trust Brunson and the ancillary pieces on New York compared to Detroit’s personnel, which gives the Pistons a more limited offensive capacity. 

As I mentioned in my preview for the opening game of the series, teams that tend to win games in the playoff also cover spreads. In fact, we are now on a 5-year run of straight-up winners covering the spread at an 89% clip. With that in mind, I’ll continue to follow this trend and lay the points with the Knicks in a game in which New York should do enough to put away the Pistons in front of its home fans.

Pistons vs Knicks prediction: New York -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

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The Orlando Magic battled to the end in Game 4 against the Boston Celtics. They were only down by 4 heading into the fourth quarter, ultimately slipping to a 9-point loss. The grit and grind this team has shown should set them up perfectly to stay competitive out on the road in Game 5. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have not disappointed in any of the games so far,  averaging a combined 58 points per game. The Celtics have had real trouble keeping the pair out of the paint and there is nothing to suggest that will change ahead of this one. If the remaining cast can chip in, the visitors can stay competitive in a slow-paced, defensive battle.

The Magic have done a phenomenal job in keeping the Celtics quiet from the perimeter, holding them to below 10 made 3-pointers in each of the games so far. In Game 4 the Celtics made just 29% of their 3-point attempts. If this trend is to continue, it’s hard to see the home team easily surpassing the 100-point mark, which would then only require the Magic to score around 90 to cover with the 11.5 points that have been given. Orlando showed much greater effort in the last outing to attack in transition and has now surpassed the 90-point mark in each of the games of the series apart from the opener. Do not be shocked to see the Magic go over 100 in this one. I’m taking the points with the visitors as a result.

Magic vs Celtics prediction: Orlando +11.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +9.5.

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Arguably the best series of the opening round to this point has come in the Western Conference between the Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets, with 3 of the 4 games being decided by one possession. And while I haven’t had the greatest handle on this series from a totals perspective, I’m of the belief that the Nuggets miraculous victory on an Aaron Gordon dunk at the buzzer has set us up for a great zig-zag spot in favor of the Clippers on Tuesday. 

While the momentum has swung back and forth in this series, the Clippers are the better, deeper roster and the more consistent team on a game-to-game basis. It all starts on defense for Los Angeles, as head coach Ty Lue’s team boasts one of the best defenses in the league. In fact, outside of the brilliance of Nikola Jokic, Denver has really struggled to find consistent success in the halfcourt in this series. We’ve also seen Denver’s lack of depth rear its ugly head, as the Nuggets are even more limited without the services of Russell Westbrook off the bench. Jokic has put up his usual excellent numbers in this series, but the Clippers have forced him into a number of careless mistakes, most of which happened in Games 2 and 3. While Jokic is coming off a tremendous game, there is something to be said for the struggles of Denver’s supporting cast, particularly Jamal Murray, who has struggled to get anything going offensively all series long. With Murray’s limitations at the moment, along with Michael Porter Jr’s precarious shoulder injury situation, it’s difficult to see Denver getting consistent production from the non-Jokic players once again on Tuesday.

On the other side of the ball, while Denver’s defensive effort is markedly improved from where it was in the regular season, this is still a bottom 10 unit in defensive rating, and those woes have particularly showed up against high-level competition. That is exactly what the Clippers bring to the table with James Harden and Kawhi Leonard both turning in stellar performances in this series thus far. The Nuggets have not shown an ability to slow down either player, and that’s before Harden gets Ivica Zubac involved in the pick-and-roll game. Ultimately, I’m expecting a slight regression to the mean for Denver’s defense and plenty of high-pressure minutes for a weakened Nuggets offense in a game that could come down to a couple of key open shots on either side. I trust Los Angeles to make those shots and win a massive Game 5 on the road.

Clippers vs Nuggets prediction: Los Angeles ML (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

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