NBA Picks

Although the Bulls managed to survive against the Pelicans and Magic without Josh Giddey, their last 2 losses against Charlotte and Boston showed us just how valuable he is to this team. In both of those games the offense looked stagnant at times; they managed just 99 and 101 points in those double-digit losses. Now they face an even tougher challenge against the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday, and the oddsmakers aren’t feeling too optimistic about the Bulls’ chances with the spread set at +10.5 points. Only 1 of the last 5 games have gone Chicago’s way, plus it is just 1-4 ATS during that stretch.

Order has been restored atop of the Eastern Conference with the Pistons winning their last 2 games. For a minute people thought Detroit finally caved, but with wins against the Cavs and Knicks, they just reaffirmed themselves as the best team in the conference. Cade Cunningham has been playing extremely well; he does have a wrist issue right now — which has him on the injury report as a game-time decision. That’s basically the only worry I have ahead of this game from Detroit’s perspective. The Pistons have won all 3 games in which Cunningham has sat out this year, but it goes without saying that they are simply not the same team without their best player.

After seeing the Bulls score 99 and 101 points in their last 2 games, I can’t see them turning things around so swiftly as they take on the second-best defense in the league this season. Detroit is a convincing 13-2 SU in 15 home games; it has also won 6 of 7 against Central Division opponents. I’ll go with the top team in the East.

Bulls vs Pistons prediction: Detroit -10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Boston is 23-12, on a 4-game winning streak and just beat Chicago 115-101 on Monday. Denver comes in extremely banged up; Nikola Jokic is out, while Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon are all listed as game-time decisions. However, Denver just went into Philadelphia on Monday as a +14.5 underdog and beat the 76ers 125-124 in overtime, with Jalen Pickett (29), Peyton Watson (24) and Bruce Brown (19) carrying the load. That’s the sign of a team that believes in a next-man up mentality.

Boston’s a superb basketball team and is presently riding a 7-2 heater against the spread. That almost certainly is influencing market perception and pricing. However, that creates an opportunity once again on the visitors. Given Denver’s depth showing it can compete without Jokic, how we can not come back on Denver here in this spot, too? Boston likely wins, but that is not a guarantee. With that being said, taking back +9.5 with the Nuggets is too rich.

Nuggets vs Celtics prediction: Denver +9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +9.

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On the surface, this matchup looks like a spot in which you simply side with the steadier team. Toronto has been playing well, going 4-1 straight up and ATS over its last 5 — and the market clearly respects that form. Charlotte, by contrast, owns a 13-23 record and a profile that makes it an easy team to dismiss in most matchups. In a near-pick ’em environment, the default instinct is to back the team with the winning record — but that’s exactly where the number becomes interesting.

Despite Toronto’s optics, the price implies the underdog is live — and that makes perfect sense to us. Charlotte has already beaten the Raptors twice this season, including a 25-point win where the Hornets controlled late-game tempo and execution. The Hornets have also demonstrated an ability to step up against better competition, posting recent road wins in Chicago and Oklahoma City — proof that their ceiling is higher than their record implies. Prior to these 2 wins, the Hornets nearly upset Milwaukee in the Fiserv Forum and hung with Golden State. This is a team that has clearly turned a corner and has a New Year’s resolution of elevating its game. We’re not worried about records; we are concerned with finding value in the numbers. This is a game Charlotte can win, and to get at a plus-money price makes it a delicious option on tonight’s menu.

Raptors vs Hornets prediction: Charlotte ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Ask yourself if the present iteration of the Denver Nuggets be priced in the same range as the Washington Wizards. That’s essentially what we have here after Philadelphia was a -14.5 on Monday despite opening as a -10.5 choice. However, the market would likely disagree with that premise. Thus, Philadelphia looks discounted today. But if you delve a bit deeper into the line, it says a lot. This is a proclamation of reassurance with the Wizards. Washington has quietly become more competitive; it is 5-2  in its last 7 overall. But the market will dismiss that and quickly point out that the Wizards have been owned in this H2H series; they have won only once in the last 10 against Philly. But this is a spread play, not a money-line bet. So the question remains: should Philadelphia be laying this many points to anyone? The fact that the Sixers lost in overtime outright to said Denver side would be a big, fat NO.

Double-digit favorites need sustained dominance to cover; Philly, however, is not dominant and there is no motviation for it to chase the margin here — just a win. The Wizards simply need to be competent — and the recent data says they are able to do that. And for those quick to jump ship on the Wizards, let us remind you that back in October when these 2 sides met, overtime was also required. We wouldn’t be surprised if lightning struck again in the City of Brotherly Love this evening, but as we wrote before, we are not interested in an outright upset — just Washington to come in under a number that is too large.

Wizards vs 76ers prediction: Washington +12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The New York Knicks have been involved in high-scoring games of late, with 7 of their last 10 contests surpassing the 221-point mark. One of the reasons for that is their inability to get stops. Over the last 10 games they are all the way down in 28th in defensive rating. They could have issues improving on that when they face Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers. Leonard has managed to score omore than 40 points in 2 of his last 5 games and it would not be surprising to see him go off for a big night in the Garden. James Harden is listed as questionable to play — but if he does take to the floor, expect the Clippers’ offense to be in full swing.

Over the last 10 games, these teams have been some of the best from beyond the arc. They are third and fourth in the NBA 3-point percentage. It is no surprise to see both in the top 10 in makes during that stretch. With the Knicks 29th in opponent 3-point percentage during that time, expect the Clippers to be leading the charge on that front. The Knicks are sixth in the league in fast-break points per game, too, and will be looking to push the tempo in this one — especially as they try and beat Ivica Zubac down the floor. With the success these teams have had shooting the ball, it should be enough to help clear a relatively low line.

Clippers vs Knicks prediction: Over 221.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 223.

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Trey Murphy III had himself a game last night, torching the Lakers for 42 points. However, his Pelicans couldn’t take advantage of his stellar performance and lost for the eighth game in a row. They now take their less than impressive 2-13 SU road record to Atlanta for a date with the Hawks, who are trying to turn things around. During the losing streak, only Dallas and Sacramento have a worse offensive rating than the Pels. On defense they are allowing 122.5 points per 100 possessions, which ranks them 28th in the NBA. Only the Kings have a worse Net Rating over the last 8 games, and teams are beating the Pelicans by an average of 12.2 points per game.

Atlanta is in a bit of a rut right now, but there appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel as the stalemate between them and Trae Young finally looks to be over. The superstar point guard has formally requested a trade, so we may have seen the last of him in a Hawks uniform as the team looks to move him in the coming days or weeks. When Young sits this team is 15-13 SU, while with him present in the lineup they have won just twice in 10 games. Jalen Johnson takes over the reigns on the offensive end, as he is now the #1 option. I’m also looking at Kristaps Porzingis to have an impact on this game; the combination of his size and shooting ability is something with which the Pelicans will have major issues.

Assuming Young sits, this should be all Hawks. They have the rest advantage and are playing against a struggling Pelicans team at home. The first meeting saw Atlanta win 115-98 in New Orleans on November 23; it was their fourth win in 5 meetings. New Orleans is just 2-18 SU in 20 road games, I’ll take the Hawks.

Pelicans vs Hawks prediction: Atlanta -10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Orlando Magic find themselves on the back-end of a back-to-back set tonight as they visit the Brooklyn Nets. It is a team they have beaten in each of the last 5 meetings and — having suffered a surprising defeat last night against the Wizards — they will be motivated to get back on track. The team have been able to have success this season playing without a night’s rest, winning 4 of 6 such games. There are a few injuries impacting the roster, with Jales Suggs and Franz Wagner remaining out for this contest. However, with the recent success that they have had against tonight’s opponents, they will be confident in a bounce-back performance.

The Brooklyn Nets will probably have issues dealing with the physicality of Paolo Banchero. He will likely be matched up against Michael Porter Jr., who is hardly known as a strong individual defender. Banchero has scored at least 28 points in 3 of his last 4 games, all on 50% or better shooter from the field. The Nets’ offense is struggling of late — 23rd in offensive rating over the last 10 games. The Magic are seventh in paint points over that stretch of time, while the Nets are just 18th in points allowed in that category. The visitors should be able to overpower Brooklyn once more and extend their H2H winning streak.

Magic vs Nets prediction: Orlando -2 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Phoenix Suns wrap up a quick 2-game trip to Houston and Memphis. The Suns are looking to bounce back following a 100-97 loss in Houston, although the Suns were able to grab the cover as +8.5 underdogs. They have covered 3 in a row while going 9-1 against the spread in the past 10 outings. The good news is that the Suns are relatively healthy, too, with only Jalen Green (hamstring) still out and Jamaree Bouyea, a reserve, in the concussion protocol. Still, Phoenix is playing well lately — and it has been a cover king for bettors.

The Memphis Grizzlies just played Tuesday, and now face the difficult turnaround. The good news is that the Grizzlies were able to sleep in their home beds, as last night’s game against the San Antonio Spurs — a 106-105 win — was also in the Forum. Memphis cashed as a 6-point underdog, as the Under (238.5) cashed, but the Grizz are just 2-3 ATS in the past 5 games and 4-5 ATS in the previous 9 outings. While Memphis has won 6 in a row in this series, as inexplicable as that is, Phoenix has ended up covering three in a row — including a 114-113 loss at home as a 2.5-point underdog back on Oct. 29.

Suns vs Grizzlies prediction: Phoenix -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.

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The Utah Jazz wrap up a 4-game road trip against the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday night. While Utah has lost all 3 games on the trip, it has covered twice — including its only game as a double-digit underdog. In fact, as an underdog of 7.5 or more points, the Jazz have covered 4 consecutive contests and are 4-2 against the spread in the past 6 games, too. Utah has dropped 7 in a row in this series, though, while Oklahoma City has covered 4 straight meetings. So proceed with caution.

Oklahoma City is coming off an embarrassing and stunning 124-97 loss against the Charlotte Hornets on Monday night as a -15.5 favorite, and not only has OKC failed to cover as a double-digit favorite in the past 2 games, it has lost both games outright. The Thunder have struggled since losing the NBA Cup semifinals in Las Vegas on Dec. 13, going 6-6 straight up and 5-7 ATS in the 12-game span. Let’s back the Jazz catching almost 20 points, and keep fading the Thunder until they are able to start to resemble the form we saw in their championship run and earlier this season, too.

Jazz vs Thunder prediction: Utah +18.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +16.5.

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The Los Angeles Lakers head into this matchup in a less-than-ideal spot, as their offensive efficiency has dipped noticeably on the road. While the star power remains elite, the Lakers have struggled to maintain consistent scoring pace away from home — particularly when defensive intensity ramps up and transition opportunities are limited. Road games have often forced Los Angeles into more half-court possessions, in which efficiency can fluctuate and scoring runs are harder to sustain. That dynamic becomes even more important against a Spurs team that is comfortable slowing tempo when circumstances call for it. The Lakers will likely be without LeBron James given that this is a back-to-back situation and Austin Reaves is still sidelined. Points will be at a premium.

San Antonio also enters this game on the second night of a back-to-back, a situation that has consistently produced lower-scoring outcomes this season. Spurs games are 4-1 to the Under with no rest, as this group tends to prioritize defensive positioning, longer possessions and reduced pace to conserve energy. While Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox still provide scoring punch, overall shot quality and tempo have dipped in these spots. Combined with a Lakers team that hasn’t been as sharp offensively on the road, this matchup sets up for fewer possessions and more deliberate basketball.

Lakers vs Spurs prediction: Under 236.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Houston Rockets enter this matchup likely without Alperen Sengun, and his absence significantly alters their offensive profile. Sengun has been the engine of Houston’s half-court offense, providing interior scoring, playmaking and rebounding, and the numbers reflect his value. With him in the lineup, the Rockets are averaging 120.4 points per game — but that figure drops to 113.8 without him. Without Sengun’s presence on the block, Houston tends to rely more on isolation scoring and perimeter shooting — which has led to longer possessions and less consistent efficiency. While the Rockets still play with energy and athleticism, their offensive flow and shot quality clearly take a hit when Sengun is unavailable.

Portland, meanwhile, has leaned into a more controlled style of play — especially against teams missing key offensive pieces. The Trail Blazers have focused on rebounding, limiting transition opportunities and forcing opponents into half-court sets. Deni Avdija has taken on a larger offensive role, providing steady scoring and secondary playmaking — while Donovan Clingan anchors the paint and helps Portland slow games down by controlling the glass. Defensively, the Blazers have shown improvement by contesting shots and reducing easy paint touches — a strategy that matches up well against a Sengun-less Houston squad. With the Rockets’ scoring efficiency trending downward without their star center and Portland comfortable playing at a slower pace, this matchup sets up for fewer possessions and more grinding stretches.

Rockets vs Trail Blazers prediction: Under 222.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Whenever Giannis Antetokounmpo takes on Jimmy Butler, I’m here for it. We have seen some exciting matchups between those 2 over the years, and Wednesday brings us yet another installment of the heated rivalry. Both teams are in desperate need of wins; I’d argue the Bucks’ situation is slightly more tenuous given that they are out of the playoff race right now in 11th place. However, their recent win over the Kings has them filled with confidence; it was their fourth in 5 outings. Milwaukee has now covered in 5 of 6 road games, but i will need all the luck it can get against a team that has beaten it 4 times in the last 6 meetings.

The atmosphere around the Warriors isn’t the best these days — from Draymond Green’s tantrums and ejections to Steve Kerr admitting to the media that they simply aren’t a contender right now. Add to that the fact that they are actively trying to trade Jonathan Kuminga but failing to find adequate suitors, it’s no wonder this team is only 19-18 SU and only eigth in the loaded West. Green is a game-time decision with an ankle issue; they sure could use his defensive ability against Antetokounmpo. The Greek Freak is averaging a double-double to the tune of 25.8 points and 10.7 rebounds per game in the last 10 meetings.

The Bucks have had their shortcomings this season and they are far from being elite at the moment, but they are the more in-form team. They are one of the rare teams in the league that can match the Warriors’ 3-point shooting ability, it makes way more sense to back Milwaukee as the road underdog.

Bucks vs Warriors prediction: Milwaukee +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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