NBA Picks

Game 4 sets up as a classic market overreaction spot. Cleveland entered Game 3 as a short road favorite (-2.5 at tip-off) and was blown out by a desperate Toronto team trying to avoid this series getting pushed to the brink, 126-104. That result has predictably flipped sentiment, with bettors now gravitating toward the Raptors after finally seeing them break through. However, the adjustment from oddsmakers tells a different story—Cleveland is now laying a bigger number on the road. That’s not accidental.

This is where the zig-zag comes into play. Toronto’s Game 3 win was fueled by urgency, but this is the kind of set-up where the market is now betting the Raptors a game too late. The time to back Toronto was on Thursday, and the shift in the oddsmaker’s pricing all but says it. However, what the market sees is more points with a team that just orchestrated a rout and is overreacting as a result. The market overall often chases the most recent outcome, and this feels like a textbook case. Now, value swings back to Cleveland, whose offensive ceiling and ability to respond after losses make them the sharper side. Lay the points.

Cavaliers vs Raptors prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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The San Antonio Spurs got the job done in Game 3 with a 120-108 win over the Portland Trail Blazers without Victor Wembanyama. Wembanyama exited Game 2 with a concussion and was ruled out for game three. His status for Game 4 is still up in the air.

The final score of Game 3 does not show the difficulties the Spurs faced without their star. The Spurs trailed Portland 84-68 with 4 minutes left in the third quarter before they made their comeback. The Spurs tied the game at 93 with 9 minutes left, and finished the game on 27-15 run. Stephon Castle took over as the primary scoring option with 33 points, and Dylan Harper added 27 off the bench. Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers could not capitalize on good shooting from Jrue Holiday and Scoot Henderson. Holiday was 5-of-9 from three, while Henderson finished 5-of-10 from deep. Deni Avdija shot the ball poorly, only going 3-of-15 from the field, but he finished going 12-of-16 from the free throw line.

This game could be hard to predict early with Wembanyama’s status unknown, and we may not find out if he’s playing until closer to tip. I am going to jump in early on the Spurs with the hope that he does suit up for Game 4. Wembanyama was hopeful he could start Game 3, but ended up being downgraded to “Out” on game day. Even if the Spurs decide to be careful and rest Wembanyama, I still believe the Spurs can win and cover this spread. Game 3 felt like the Trail Blazers took their best shot at the Spurs, and they failed in a deflating fashion. Neither Holiday or Henderson are known as sharpshooters from the perimeter, and they gave Portland a combined 10 threes. The backcourt duo’s shooting is in line for regression in Game 4.

The Spurs played 18 games this season without Wembanyama, and they won 12 of them. Portland allowed the Spurs role players to gain the confidence that they can now win in the postseason without Wembanyama as well. I like the Spurs to win and take a commanding 3-1 series lead with the assumption that Wembanyama may sit this game out, and if Wembanyama does end up playing for San Antonio, I’ll have the spread at a good number.

Spurs vs Trail Blazers prediction: San Antonio Spurs -5.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable to that number.

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The Celtics are back in front following an 8-point win in Game 3 over the Sixers, and now they look to deliver the knockout punch on Sunday as the teams lock horns yet again. Jayson Tatum continued to shine with 25 points and 7 assists, while Jaylen Brown added 25 points and 7 rebounds. Boston had the game pretty much under control the entire time; the three-ball was also falling as they knocked down 20 of 47 shots. In fact, the three-ball has been the major differentiator in this matchup — the only reason the Sixers were able to pull off the upset in Game 2 is because they got red-hot from three, and there’s not much you can do in today’s NBA when that happens.

For Philly, Game 4 is basically the game of the season. A loss sees them go down 3-1, a hole from which only a handful of teams in NBA history have clawed back. What is concerning if you’re a Sixers fan is the fact that they’ve yet to receive a proper shooting game from Tyrese Maxey, who is making just 39.2% of his shots from the field. It’s quite obvious that he is the focal point of the Celtics defense, and the Sixers are searching for answers because of it. One answer that could help them out massively would, of course, be the return of Joel Embiid. The big fella is still recovering from his appendectomy; his status has been upgraded to a game-time decision ahead of Sunday’s clash.

Boston has seemingly found the blueprint to winning this series. Knock down a bunch of threes, keep Philly’s best player under control and let others try to beat you. Even if Embiid is inserted in the lineup here, I don’t believe he’ll make an instant impact after not touching the court for the past 2 weeks or so. I’ll give Boston another shout and back them to cover in Game 4.

Celtics vs 76ers Predictions: Boston Celtics -7.5 (-110) is available at time of publishing. Playable to that number.

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Closeout games bring a unique psychological dynamic, especially when a sweep is on the table. The Lakers hold a 3–0 series lead and, on paper, are clearly the superior team. However, this is precisely the type of spot in which motivation and urgency diverge sharply. For Los Angeles, the pressure to finish the series can create tightness. Historically, teams in this position often struggle to deliver their best performance, particularly on the road. Meanwhile, Houston enters with nothing to lose and everything to prove. Even in a disappointing series, this becomes their last stand—a chance to avoid the sweep and salvage pride in front of a home crowd.

There’s also a natural tendency for the leading team to ease off slightly, whether consciously or not, especially with a return home looming for a potential Game 5. That subtle dip in intensity can be all a team like Houston needs. The betting market is leaning toward the Lakers based on results and narrative, but that ignores the situational factors. Houston’s energy, combined with a more aggressive approach and increased desperation, can tilt this game in their favor. The Lakers will win the series, but this specific spot favors Houston. Spot the points with the Rockets to send this series back to Los Angeles.

Lakers vs Rockets prediction: Houston Rockets -5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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