NBA Picks

This is purely a numbers and profile play, and it starts with one simple question: why is Chicago laying this many points on the road? The Bulls have been unreliable away from home all season, posting a poor straight-up record of 11-27, while struggling to maintain consistency across four quarters. Their style doesn’t naturally support margin. Chicago relies heavily on scoring bursts, particularly from the perimeter, to create separation.

That’s a volatile way to cover a spread. If the three-point shooting isn’t there, Chicago’s offense can stagnate, and their defensive issues become more exposed. They are a team that can give points back just as quickly as they create them. Washington isn’t appealing, but that’s exactly why this number exists. In games like this, that can actually work in their favor. They don’t need to control the game, they just need to stay within range. When both teams come with their respective question marks, taking points becomes the sharper position. Chicago hasn’t shown it can consistently put teams away on the road, and there is enough potential scoring variance to allow Washington to stay competitive. Grabbing the points provides value as this is a tilt with upset potential.

Bulls vs Wizards prediction: Washington +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +6.

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This is driven primarily by Minnesota’s defensive identity and game script. The Timberwolves are heavy favorites here, which is key—not just for who wins, but how the game is likely to be played. When Minnesota is in control, they naturally slow tempo, prioritize half-court execution, and lean into their defensive structure. That immediately works against the number going over when we consider the state of the Pacers.

Indiana adds another layer to the Under case. They’ve been one of the more inconsistent offensive teams in the league, particularly against physical, disciplined defenses. When forced into structured possessions, their efficiency tends to drop, leading to scoring droughts that are difficult to recover from. Blowout dynamics also favor the Under. If Minnesota builds a lead, as expected, the game can flatten out late, with reduced pace, longer possessions, and less urgency offensively. That limits scoring upside in the second half. For this total to go Over, Indiana needs to contribute consistently, and Minnesota needs to maintain offensive pressure throughout. Both are questionable. With one team dictating tempo and the other struggling for consistency, this projects as a controlled game that stays under.

Timberwolves vs Pacers prediction: Under 231.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 231.

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The Miami Heat travel to face the Toronto Raptors in a tightly lined Eastern Conference matchup with playoff positioning at stake. Miami enters at 41-37 and has been inconsistent, particularly on the defensive end. The Heat have allowed at least 121 points in eight of their last ten losses, including a 147-point performance allowed against Boston, highlighting ongoing defensive issues. Offensively, Miami is led by Norman Powell’s 22.1 points per game along with Bam Adebayo’s interior presence, but injuries and lineup instability have impacted consistency. The Heat are also just 16-22 on the road, further emphasizing their struggles away from home.

Toronto enters at 43-35 and continues to push for a playoff spot, winning seven of its last nine games and coming off a 128-96 win over Memphis. The Raptors rely on a balanced attack led by RJ Barrett, Brandon Ingram, and Scottie Barnes, with Barnes contributing across scoring, rebounding, and playmaking. Toronto is 21-17 at home and has performed well in close-line situations, winning 65.2% of games when favored. With stronger recent form, offensive balance, and Miami’s defensive inconsistencies, this shapes up as a favorable spot for the Raptors in what should be a competitive game.

Heat vs Raptors prediction: Raptors -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

The Milwaukee Bucks head to Barclays Center to meet the Brooklyn Nets at 7:30 p.m. ET. These are two teams already eliminated from playoff contention, but whether a team has something to play for, or nothing to play for, there is still money to be made on games like these. The Bucks roll in with covers in four of the past five games, and the Over has cashed in three in a row, and six of the past eight games. Milwaukee has scored at least 113 points in four of the past five games, too, including a 119-113 loss at Houston, and a 127-113 loss at home to the Los Angeles Clippers.

The Nets topped the equally inept Washington Wizards in a game somebody had to win, but they’re still just 2-12 SU in the past 14 games, while going a respectable 6-3 ATS. The Over has cashed in the past two games, with Brooklyn going for 114.0 points per game (PPG), while allowing 128.0 PPG in the span. As such, we’ll go with the Over for the total, as Brooklyn and Milwaukee aren’t exactly known for lockdown defense.

Bucks vs Nets prediction: Over 220.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 222.

Last night’s loss in San Antonio by the Philadelphia 76ers gives the Charlotte Hornets now an opportunity to leap over them in the standings for the 7th seed. In order to achieve that though, they have to go into TD Garden and take down the Boston Celtics. LaMelo and co. have impressed with a 4-game win streak, scoring 120+ in 3 consecutive games, but I think we can all agree the Celtics are a different animal compared to the Nets, Suns, Pacers and Timberwolves. Charlotte has just 1 win in 8 meetings, while on the road in Boston they’ve won just twice in 17 visits. Coby White is the only potential absentee, the Hornets can base their optimism on their recent shooting from 3-point range. In their last 3 games they’ve knocked down 19, 24 and 18 triples.

The Celtics have been slightly less prolific from 3-point land over their last 3 games, but they still won all 3 and are on a run of 8 wins in their last 10 outings. This team has exceeded expectations all season, but especially since Jayson Tatum came back. From an individual standpoint he has looked really solid, Boston fans are dreaming of another deep Playoff run and for good reason. They’ve also been a reliable bet lately, covering 6 times in their last 7 games, while against Eastern Conference opponents they’ve done it in 5 of 6 such games. Believe it or not there’s nobody listed on the injury report for this game, this is a rarity for any team at this point of the season, let alone the Celtics — who played more than half of the year without their best player from last year.

This is a good test for both sides to see where they’re at in the final week of the regular season. Both meetings from earlier this year were blowout wins and on both occasions we saw the road team come out on top. I think it’s time we see a home win in this series, Boston has been reliable enough to warrant our trust here. Charlotte’s high-octane offense will work on most nights, but on most nights in the NBA you face mediocre defenses these days. The Celtics are anything but mediocre on that end, let’s back them to come out on top.

Hornets vs Celtics prediction: Boston -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Utah Jazz and New Orleans Pelicans will both enter this matchup with sizable losing streaks. The Jazz have lost 9 straight games, while the Pelicans have lost 8 in succession. If either team wants to end their losing streak, they will have to do it without a handful of their leaders due to injury. The Jazz will be without Keyonte George, Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr, while the Pelicans will be missing Trey Murphy III and Dejounte Murray. With both teams near the bottom of the standings, the question we may need to ask is ‘who wants to lose this game more?’ The Jazz would certainly benefit more if they lost their last 3 games. Utah is currently tied for the worst record in the Western Conference, and 3 more losses to end the season would only further increase their odds of gaining a top draft pick in this year’s upcoming draft. The Pelicans sit in the standings above Utah with 4 more wins, but tanking was never an intention for New Orleans this season.

The Pelicans may have left themselves without a pick in this year’s lucrative draft after trading away their rights to their unprotected pick in last year’s draft when they traded up to take Derik Queen. Queen has been solid in his rookie season with 11.2 points per game, but draft positioning for 2026 will not be a key focus for the Pelicans’ front office. The Pelicans will have more talent on the floor tonight than Utah with Saddiq Bey and Zion Williamson. Everyone knows Williamson is great, while Bey has shown he can be a key piece toward New Orleans’ rebuild. Bey is 43rd in the NBA in scoring with 17.7 points per game, and he is averaging 33 points per game in the 2 games played against Utah this season. Tonight is the Pels’ last home game of the season, and I expect their players to come out with a good showing in hopes to end on a high note with their fans as they look forward to 2026-27.

Jazz vs Pelicans prediction: New Orleans -11.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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With less than a handful of games remaining in the NBA season, the Sacramento Kings and the Golden State Warriors still need to play a pair of games against one another. The first game will be tonight in Golden State, a place that Sacramento lost 137-103 last time they played there in early January. The Kings have won 2 of their last 3 games heading into this game. The 2 wins came in Toronto against the Raptors and at home against the New Orleans Pelicans. Winning games down the stretch doesn’t provide the Kings with much benefit outside of pride. Sacramento is currently tied for the worst record in the Western Conference, and losing their final 3 games would help them improve their high draft pick odds ahead of a talent-filled draft pool.

The Warriors are heading into this one on a 4-game losing streak. Injuries have ravaged Golden State’s season and it has left their team without Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Al Horford in the past couple of months. Since the beginning of March, the Warriors have only won 5 games and have dropped all the way down to 10th seed in the Western Conference. The Warriors currently sit 3.5 games behind the Trail Blazers, making it all but certain that they will need to win 2 road games if they want to play their way into the postseason.

The good news for Golden State is that it will once again have Stephen Curry on the court for this run. Curry returned on Monday against the Rockets. He scored 29 points on 52% shooting in only 26 minutes played. With Curry just returning from a long injury, he is listed on the injury report, but he is considered probable for tonight’s game. Even if Curry plays tonight, I believe this spread insinuates that the Warriors are now back to normal with their star player back. Curry is still not 100% and will likely play limited minutes if he gets the go-ahead tonight. And even with how great Curry is, no single player could fully fix all of the Warrior’s defects and inefficiencies. I am going to fade the Warriors until they show they can be a team that can be favored by double digits and cover.

Kings vs Warriors prediction: Sacramento +14 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Tonight will be the fourth and final matchup this season between the Los Angeles Clippers and the Dallas Mavericks. It has been a tight series so far, with the Clippers holding a 2-1 lead, but having needed overtime in both of their wins. The visitors do come into this game with some injury concerns to their bigs, with Dereck Lively II out, Daniel Gafford doubtful and Marvin Bagley III questionable to play. However, a veteran like Dwight Powell should be able to step in and deal with Brook Lopez inside. The Mavericks are coming into this game after taking down the Los Angeles Lakers and will look to keep that positive momentum going.

Cooper Flagg is currently in the mist of making a late charge to secure rookie of the year honors. Over his last 2 games he is averaging a staggering 51 points per game. He now takes on a Clippers team he has had success against this season, with his 52.9% shooting from the field against them exceeding his season average. If he is able to maintain that here, he should be able to keep the Mavericks competitive in this contest. The Clippers have suffered double-digit losses in 2 of their last 4 games so have been far from untouchable. Look for this to follow the season series trend and be another tightly contested game.

Mavericks vs Clippers prediction: Dallas +11.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +10.5.

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Fresh off their 35-point win over the Utah Jazz, the OKC Thunder are headed to Los Angeles for a date with the all of a sudden injury-riddled Lakers. I will be the fourth meeting of the season between the 2 sides — OKC has won all 3 by a combined 81 points. So, in theory, they should be blowing the Lakers out again — right? There’s still no room for complacency since the #1 seed still hasn’t been secured, and a win here gets the defending champs an inch closer to achieving that goal. This team has won 9 in a row against Western Conference opponents and is 5-1 ATS/SU in the last 6 meetings with the Lakers.

In their first game since Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves’ injuries, the Lakers fell on the road to the lowly Dallas Mavericks. LeBron James did his best with 30 points, 15 assists and 9 rebounds, and while he did gets some help from his teammates offensively, there was not much the Lakers could do about Cooper Flagg in that loss. We learned a lot from that result on Sunday. Moving forward, LA will depend quite a lot on James to carry the offensive burden. The game in Dallas saw him record 117 touches total — his most since 2021. Is that strategy sustainable moving forward for the 41-year old? I have my reservations about that, especially before a game against the defending champs.

I expect the Lakers to come out with a ton of energy. The home crowd is their only hope of keeping this game reasonably close. But, in the end, the Thunder are just way better. Even with Jalen Williams out injured, they should run this team over. They have beaten them by more than 17 points twice already this season, and the Lakers were in much better shape in both those losses compare to what we’ll get from them on Tuesday. I’m backing the Thunder to cover the big spread.

Thunder vs Lakers prediction: Oklahoma City -16 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Houston Rockets face the Phoenix Suns in a matchup between two Western Conference playoff teams built around defense and controlled tempo. Houston enters at 49-29 on a six-game winning streak following a 117-116 win over Golden State. The Rockets rank seventh in defensive rating at 111.9 while posting a 116.9 offensive rating, driven by efficient half court execution and elite offensive rebounding where they rank first in offensive rebound percentage. Kevin Durant leads the scoring with 25.9 points per game, while Alperen Sengun anchors the interior, helping Houston dictate physical play and limit second chance opportunities for opponents.

Phoenix enters at 43-35 and mirrors a similar style, averaging 112.9 points per game while allowing 113.2. Devin Booker leads the offense with 25.8 points and 6.0 assists, guiding a balanced scoring attack. Both teams rank inside the top ten in defensive rating and prefer a slower pace, which has translated into lower scoring matchups between them this season, including a 100-97 Houston win and combined totals of 206 and 215 points in prior meetings. With both teams emphasizing half court offense, defensive efficiency, and limiting transition play, this matchup projects as a methodical game where scoring is more difficult to come by.

Rockets vs Suns prediction: Under 221.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 220.5.