NBA Picks

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Call this “How To Spot A Market Overreaction 101”. The Lakers come in riding an incendiary winning streak and drawing heavy attention, which has flipped perception in their favor. But that momentum is now fully baked into the number. When a team strings together wins like LeBron and a company have, especially a public team like Los Angeles, the market tends to overcorrect, and this is one of those spots. The Lakers are now a short road favorite against the best team in the East in their own barn. If that isn’t an overreaction, we don’t know what is.

Detroit has been one of the most consistent teams in the league all season. Their identity is built on physicality, rebounding, and defensive structure. These are traits that travel well and hold up against high-profile opponents. The Pistons are especially prominent in the Motor City, that’s key too. While much of the focus will be on the Lakers’ offensive firepower, Detroit’s ability to control possessions and limit second-chance opportunities is what consistently gets them to the finish line with the W. With the market shifting toward Los Angeles based on recent results, this creates value on the hosts who under any other circumstance would be favored here. The price dictates the play. Pistons outright.

Lakers vs Pistons prediction: Pistons ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is exactly the kind of line where the spread and the total point to the same conclusion: it’s absurd. Oklahoma City laying 15.5 on the road with the total in the low 220’s is not a conducive spot to lay lumber with the Thunder. Lower totals usually means reduced possession count, and when possessions shrink, the underdog gets more protection. A game can be fully controlled by the favorite and still finish inside a number this large. All of that is on the table with a side certainly as competent as the Sixers.

There is also a subtle market issue here. The headline around this game is that Jalen Williams is returning for Oklahoma City, which naturally boosts sentiment on the Thunder. But sentiment and  value are not the same thing. Especially when OKC is already leveraged to a point where they will be overvalued by their pedigree and reputation alone. The Thunder’s likely priority is a win and rhythm, not humiliating a playoff-caliber opponent. This is a numbers play. Take the points.

Thunder vs 76ers prediction: 76ers +15.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +15.

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With 11 games left the Spurs are 3-games off the OKC Thunder for the 1st seed in the East and with the defending champs racking up wins it’s becoming less likely by the day that San Antonio will catch them. Still, that shouldn’t discourage us from looking at a Spurs bet in Monday’s game in Miami. Victor Wembanyama has been a menace over the past 9 games averaging 28.7 ppg, 10.9 rpg and 3.3 blocks per game. He’s doing all this in 30.6 mins per game, Bam Adebayo in particular will have his hands full trying to stop the Spurs big man. Miami as a team ranks 22nd in points allowed in the paint this season, it would be a good idea for San Antonio to get the ball early and often to their center here.

The Heat have struggled over their last 4 games losing to Orlando, Charlotte, the Lakers and Houston. It’s not often you see a coach dabble with his starting unit 70 games into the season, but that’s exactly what Erik Spoelstra has been doing which could explain why Miami has been unable to win games. Norman Powell has been in and out of the starting line-up, it’s unclear if he’ll play on Monday due to a lingering calf injury. Miami wasted a 31 point and 10 rebound game from Adebayo the last time these two teams met, which ended in a 6-point Spurs victory. If there’s one encouraging factor for the Heat entering this game it’s the fact that they’ve shot over 50% in their last two games, however the defense will need to improve after 123, 134 and 136 points allowed in their last 3 outings.

The sense of urgency to win here is a lot higher for Miami, but the Spurs are the more in-form team. With the likes of Jaime Jaquez, Norman Powell and Andrew Wiggins all questionable to play, it could be a struggle against one of the deeper teams in the NBA. The Spurs have won 9 of 10 on the road and they’re also 4-1 ATS in 5 games vs East opponents. I’ll take Wemby and co. here.

Spurs vs Heat prediction: Spurs -5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Atlanta Hawks will be trying to continue their winning ways when they host the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday night. Atlanta’s 11-game winning streak came to an end on Friday with a loss at Houston, but it got back on track by blowing out Golden State on Saturday. It’s a bit unusual for this franchise, but the Hawks are actually doing a nice job defensively these days. That is part of the reason why my Grizzlies vs Hawks prediction is Under 240.5. Atlanta has held 5 of its last 7 opponents to no more than 112 points. It now faces a Memphis squad that is without Ja Morant (likely sidelined for at least a couple more weeks with an elbow injury), while Cedric Coward (13.4 ppg) will miss his third consecutive contest due to personal reasons. Zach Edey (13.7 ppg) is out for the year.

Unfortunately for Atlanta, star forward Jalen Johnson is questionable with a shoulder issue. Johnson is averaging 22.7 points and 8.0 assists per game, so his absence would obviously leave a gaping hole at the offensive end of the floor. As such, the Hawks may have to rely on their defense to an even greater extent. Dyson Daniels, “The Great Barrier Thief,” has recorded multiple steals in 11 of the last 13 contests — including 4 during Saturday’s victory over the Warriors. Regardless of Johnson’s status, it feels like 240.5 is a number that won’t be exceeded.

Grizzlies vs Hawks prediction: Under 240.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Nothing short of a miracle would have to happen for the Bucks to make it into the play-in tournament – they are 7.5 games back from the 10th seed with just 12 games left. We have to applaud them for not giving up like a bunch of other teams in the Eastern Conference, but at the end of the day it’s another season of shortcomings for Giannis Antetokounmpo and his team. The Greek Freak will miss yet another game with a knee injury, joining him on the sidelines here will be Kevin Porter Jr. who is also a valuable piece at the guard position. Milwaukee did win in Phoenix the other day in a close game, but they face an uphill battle against a Clippers team on Monday.

LA comes into this one after a big win in Dallas after OT. Darius Garland shot the lights out with 8 threes made and a season high 41 points, I’m curious to see how he feels after that game given his lingering big toe injury which has limited him in so many games this season. Kawhi Leonard and John Collins are also on the injury report, listed as questionable with ankle injuries. Bennedict Mathurin has been out for the past couple of games, he could return further down the road this week. The oddsmakers have a lot of faith in these Clippers, despite them covering just once in 6 games overall and going 1-4 SU over their last 5 games.

History tells us that we should expect a tight game here, even if some of the biggest names are out injured for both sides. Milwaukee has had the edge in recent meetings winning 5 of 6 and also covering in 4 of 5, their three-point shot is what has kept them in games lately. Over the past 4 outings they’ve knocked down 20+ threes twice and have averaged 18.5 makes per game. If the Timberwolves can beat the Celtics on the road without Edwards, I think the Bucks can keep things interesting without Giannis at the Intuit Dome on Monday.

Bucks vs Clippers prediction: Bucks +12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.