NBA Picks

The Nuggets extended their dominant streak over the Lakers after completing a thrilling 19-point second-half comeback on Monday, capped off by Jamal Murray’s buzzer-beating step-back jumper over Anthony Davis. Denver has now claimed the past 10 head-to-head matchups against Los Angeles and has a real chance of extending that streak to 11 straight games on Thursday night.

Despite holding a comfortable lead midway through the third quarter, the Lakers’ offense faltered down the stretch, while their defense was unable to contain Murray and soon-to-be three-time MVP Nikola Jokic. If the Lakers couldn’t secure a win over the Nuggets after having a sky-high in-game win probability in Game 2, it’s hard to envision Los Angeles making this series competitive, even with the series shifting to their home court.

Denver’s ability to exploit mismatches in their two-man game featuring Murray and Jokic continues to be a major advantage. Meanwhile, the Lakers’ halfcourt offense looked disjointed on Monday night, and with limited support from outside LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and DeAngelo Russell, the more well-rounded Nuggets are poised to continue their dominance with a road win to take a commanding 3-0 series lead.

Nuggets ML (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -125.

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The Lakers’ lackluster second half – mustering just 40 points – could carry over into another inefficient offensive showing from L.A., leading to another low-scoring contest that favors the under 216 (-110). Los Angeles’ inability to get consistent offensive production from Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura certainly doesn’t help their chances of making this a competitive best-of-seven series – and also diminishes the over bettors’ chances of winning their wagers.

Although Denver’s gotten production from its usual suspects, the Nuggets haven’t shot the three-ball well this series, most recently going 8-of-34 (23.5%) from beyond the arc. With both offenses struggling to operate at their peak level at the moment, the under is our preferred betting angle for Game 3.

Under 216 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The sixth-seeded Pacers aim to take a 2-1 series lead on Friday night after evening the best-of-seven series with a 125-108 win in Game 2. Indiana finds itself favored by five points at home with Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) and potentially Khris Middleton (ankle) still sidelined for the Bucks. Milwaukee’s defensive struggles in Game 2 – allowing Indiana to shoot 55.6% from the field and 44% from three – are a major concern against a Pacers offense that finished the regular season second in offensive rating (122.2). Without two of their most potent offensive weapons, Milwaukee likely lacks the firepower to keep pace with Indiana.

Damian Lillard has valiantly kept the Bucks competitive, scoring 35 and 34 points in the series, but their offense sputters in Antetokounmpo’s absence. Given Milwaukee’s porous defense in Game 2, I have more faith in Rick Carlisle’s squad getting the job done at home and taking a 2-1 series lead. Back the Pacers to win and cover.

Pacers -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Even with the current total of 221.5 suggesting a fast-paced, high-scoring contest, I still think we’re in for another offense-centric track meet that goes over the total. Milwaukee’s shaky defense is likely to lead to another 115-plus-point showing from Indiana. While I believe the Pacers will ultimately win by a margin, their defense isn’t anything special either (ranked 24th). Facing a Bucks team without Antetokounmpo presents a significantly easier task for the Pacers’ inefficient defense. It’s fair to assume they’ll get enough key stops to win the game by a few possessions, but not enough to hold this game under the total.

Over 221.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

It might not have looked pretty, but the Minnesota Timberwolves have managed to win both games against the Suns and find themselves in the driver’s seat as the two teams are set to meet in Game 3 on Friday. Minnesota is 3rd in both offensive and defensive rating through 2 games of this postseason, plus out they have the best Net Rating out of all the teams that have played 2 games so far. Even with Anthony Edwards struggling on offense they still won Game 2 by 12 points, Jaden McDaniels stepped up with 25 points on 10-for-17 shooting. Winning game 3 would be a massive step towards the Conference semi-finals, but this will by far be the hardest game of this season for the young Timberwolves. Are they up for the task?

Kevin Durant will certainly have something to say about that. The Suns have had a lot of bad luck so far in this series. Their leading 3-point shooter Grayson Allen sprained his ankle in both games, he is likely to be out for several weeks. The lowest scoring bench through the regular season is also struggling in the playoffs, I’m looking at the big 3 of Durant, Booker and Beal to pick up the slack here. This will be a familiar feeling for Phoenix, they found themselves in a 2-0 hole in last season’s series against Denver, after which they were able to come back with consecutive wins. I know it’s hard to justify backing a team after seeing them fail to crack the 100 point mark in back-to-back games, but this series is far from over. I’ll take the Suns to cover in Game 3.

Suns -4 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

I just don’t get why the Suns have stayed away from playing at a fast pace in this series so far. That has worked to perfection in the 3 regular season meetings, resulting in games with 133 and 125 points for them. Losing Grayson Allen is a devastating blow to an already thin rotation, but we’ve seen players like Royce O’Neale and Eric Gordon step up in the past. Devin Booker and Bradley Beal have also left a lot to be desired over the first two games, one of them could be in line for a breakout game here. Minnesota’s defense has worked perfectly over the first two games, but playing on the road will be a much tougher task. The projected total has gone down for the 3rd straight game, now it’s at a very modest 208.5 points. I think there’s enough talent on these two rosters for them to go over that number. Back the points.

Over 208.5 Total Points is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Orlando Magic return home to the Kia Center on Thursday night for Game 3, but they find themselves down 2 games to none and in desperate need of a win. Orlando was the most profitable team ATS this season, going 51-33 overall while posting a 27-13 record ATS when playing on their home court. Since opening, the line has shifted from the Cavaliers as 2.5-point favorites to the Magic now favored by 1.5 points. And while the Magic have been tough to beat at home, I’m siding with the now underdog Cavs. Cleveland has won 3 of their last 4 games against Orlando while holding them under 100 points in all 3 wins.

Through 2 games, the Magic scored 83 and 86 points while shooting a combined 34.3% from the field and 23.6% from 3-point range. I don’t see much changing for the Magic in Game 3 considering they rank 22nd in offensive rating and often rely on their defensive efforts. The Cavs are much more well-balanced and have dominated in the rebounding department – out-rebounding Orlando 102-81 with Jarrett Allen bringing down 38 himself. The biggest difference maker in this series however is #45 Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell put up 30 and 23 in the first 2 games and could take over at any moment. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have gotten their points in this series, but the Cavs will live with that when everyone else has been a non-factor.

Cavaliers ML (+110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Rarely in the modern-day NBA do we get a point total south of 200 points, but this was the type of series we’ve come to expect. The first 2 games of the series fell under the number with totals of 180 and 182, and I’m not straying away from the trend. Both of these teams rank top-7 in defensive rating and bottom-7 in pace. Through 2 games, it’s been an absolute stone fight and neither team has even broken 100 points. The style in which these teams play are often times going to lead to these lower-scoring affairs, and Orlando’s best perimeter defender in Jalen Suggs is expected to play in Game 3 despite suffering a knee injury on Monday. I’m on the side of another low-scoring game and backing the under.

Under 199.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The New York Knicks have seized control of their first-round series against the Philadelphia 76ers by winning the first two games in dramatic fashion. While the 76ers are favored at home in Game 3, bettors would be wise to back the underdog Knicks against the spread. New York has displayed tremendous resilience by overcoming late deficits in both games, showcasing the tenacity that could allow them to keep it close on the road.

Tom Thibodeau’s squad has relied on a stifling defensive approach to neutralize the 76ers’ offensive threats like Joel Embiid and James Harden. New York has held Philadelphia under 45% shooting from the field and 35% from three-point range through two games. Even if the 76ers find more offensive rhythm at home, the Knicks’ intensity on that end should prevent them from running away with the game.

Veteran wings Josh Hart and Jalen Brunson have set the tone, but role players like Donte DiVincenzo and Isaiah Hartenstein continue making game-changing plays down the stretch. As long as the Knicks compete on the glass, defend at a high level, and get timely scoring from their role players, they should have no issue keeping this game within the generous point spread in Game 3.

Knicks +5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +4.

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Through the first two games of this intense playoff series, defense and physicality have ruled the day between the New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers. With the 76ers facing an 0-2 deficit on their home floor in Game 3, expect another grind-it-out, low-scoring affair where under 202 total points is shaping up as the best bet.

Both teams have prioritized defensive intensity and disrupting the opposing offenses. The Knicks in particular have done an excellent job making life difficult for Joel Embiid while limiting the 76ers’ transition opportunities. New York’s swarming halfcourt defense has forced Philadelphia into a lot of stagnant, tough shots.

With their season essentially on the brink in Game 3, the 76ers will look to grind out every possession and impose their physicality to muck up the game. New York won’t mind playing at a glacial pace either in order to limit possessions and scoring chances. Both teams have leaned heavily on their starters, with the benches providing minimal offensive production.

In a critical playoff game with so much at stake, the defenses are expected to rule and keep the total well under the projected 202 points. Bettors should capitalize on this trend and back the under as the Knicks and 76ers grind out a low-scoring, physical battle in Game 3.

Under 202 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.