Atlanta Hawks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/29/25

The Atlanta Hawks continue to trend in the wrong direction defensively, particularly since Trae Young’s return to the lineup. Atlanta is 0-6 in those games, and more concerning, the Hawks have allowed 125 or more points in every one of those contests, exposing major issues with perimeter containment, transition defense, and overall communication. Even with solid individual efforts from Young and Jalen Johnson, the Hawks have struggled to string together defensive stops, ranking among the league’s worst units during this stretch. Their inability to slow down opposing guards and protect the paint has made them extremely vulnerable against elite offensive teams, especially on the road.

That sets up a favorable scoring environment for the Oklahoma City Thunder, who remain one of the NBA’s most dangerous home teams. OKC has been dominant at Paycom Center, fueled by a high tempo offense led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, whose ability to penetrate and create efficient looks consistently bends defenses. Chet Holmgren’s versatility adds another layer, stretching Atlanta’s already thin interior defense, while the Thunder’s depth allows them to maintain scoring pressure even when rotating lineups. Oklahoma City has already proven it can exploit this matchup, and against a Hawks defense bleeding points nightly, the Thunder should find little resistance. With Atlanta unable to slow anyone down and OKC thriving offensively at home, this game profiles as another high scoring night for the Thunder.

Hawks vs Thunder Prediction: Thunder TT over 126.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 128