Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers Prediction, Odds and Game 3 Picks for Today, 05/09/25

Cleveland Cavaliers ML over Indiana Pacers (-152)

The Cleveland Cavaliers have their backs against the wall for their first road game of the series against the Indiana Pacers. While they are down 2-0, a part of that can be attributed to them missing key players. Evan Mobley, De’Andre Hunter and Darius Garland were all unavailable in Game 2, yet the Cavaliers still only lost to a Tyrese Haliburton buzzer-beater. The return of any of that trio here could really shift the balance in the series. While the Pacers have been strong at home this season, the Cavaliers did have the 3rd-best road record in the regular season, which included a win on Indiana.

One of the main reasons the Cavaliers have struggled is that they are yet to shoot above 30% from beyond the arc over the 2 games. They were the 2nd-best team from beyond the arc in the regular season so it’s unlikely that this trend will continue. Despite this, they still managed to surpass 110 points in both games. The Cavs squandered a 20-point lead in Game 2, but I’m expecting them to bounce back with a complete performance tonight and prove why they’re the #1 seed in the East.

Darius Garland 2+ made threes (-194)

It’s been 4 games and a little over 2 weeks since Garland last suited up for the Cavaliers. He’s been bothered by a toe injury which isn’t significant, but it’s enough for the Cavaliers to decide not to play him so he heals up as they expect a deep playoff run. Well, it might not come to that deep run if he doesn’t play in Game 3. The Cavs are down 2-0 and desperately looking for answers after fumbling the ball in the first 2 home games. This game should show just how valuable Garland is to this team.

Over his last 10 outings, Garland is at almost 20 points per game, but more importantly for our bet, he’s at 2.9 threes made per game on 38.7% efficiency during this stretch. The injury he’s dealing with might limit his movement and playmaking a little bit, but it shouldn’t have an effect on his three-point shooting. This line has been cleared by Garland in 3 consecutive head-to-head meetings with Indy, and in the last 10 he’s at 2.4 threes per game on 41.4% shooting. Ultimately the Cavs might not come out of this series, but if Garland plays it significantly increases their chances of turning things around here.

Myles Turner to record 8+ rebounds (-102)

Turner has really stepped up his rebounding game lately, recording at least 8 boards in 3 consecutive games. He’s had quite the start to the series against Cleveland with 11 and 8 rebounds in the 2 road games, continuing a trend of stuffing the box score against them. In the last 10 meetings, he’s at 7.2 rebounds per game, and the injury to Mobley means that even if he does play on Friday, he might not be at 100% which Turner can take advantage of.

So far this postseason, the Pacers have played at the 3rd-fastest tempo, averaging 98.3 possessions per game. The Cavs are in 7th with 95.3 possessions. Whenever you have teams that are looking to play fast, that should result in an influx of rebounds across the board. With Turner logging 30+ minutes in 4 consecutive games, it’s quite obvious that he is an integral part of the Pacers’ success, along with Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton. Let’s hope Turner can keep it up in Game 3 on Friday.