Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, Odds and NBA Christmas Picks for Today, 12/25/25

The Dallas Mavericks spent most of this market cycle as a +4.5 underdog, a number that reasonably reflected the matchup. The subsequent line moves aren’t about a sudden on-court downgrade — it’s about perception. Dallas hasn’t lived up to preseason hype, while the Golden State Warriors benefit from brand power, Christmas Day familiarity, and public trust.

That trust is misleading. Recent results show Dallas is far more competitive than their record suggests. The Mavericks have beaten teams like Denver, Miami, Houston, and Detroit — clubs that are every bit more capable than this version of Golden State. The Warriors are no longer some untouchable juggernaut; they’re the chalk because they have the equity and casual appeal on this stage. When the market stretches a line based on narrative rather than matchup, value appears. Dallas can not only compete here, it can win outright. However, we aren’t asking the Mavs to do that. With extra points added purely due to perception, grabbing the Mavericks is the sharp side.

Mavericks vs Warriors prediction: Dallas Mavericks +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +6.

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