Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/24/25

The Heat enter as big favorites, and that alone creates a very specific game script if things unfold as expected. Miami is not a team that pushes the tempo once they seize control; in fact, they often do the opposite. When protecting a lead, Miami deliberately slows possessions, shortens the game, and forces their opponent to grind through extended half-court sets. That brand of basketball is kryptonite for an Over, especially when the margin widens early.

Dallas, meanwhile, remains one of the more volatile teams in the Western Conference — “boom or bust” by definition. They can put up 135 in one outing and then wallow in the low 100s the next. Against a disciplined defensive unit like the Heat, volatility leans heavily toward bust. Unless the Mavericks find improbable rhythm, their scoring output is at risk of falling below expectation. The pressure here sits entirely on Miami to carry the offensive load. Should Miami clamp down early, this total becomes inflated in hindsight. This matchup has Under written all over it.

Mavericks vs. Heat prediction: Under 241.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.