Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/27/26

The Over is playable because the underlying math points to that being tenable. Denver enters with the NBA’s best offensive rating (120.7 ppg), and Oklahoma City owns the league’s best defensive rating (106.4 ppg), thus making this a a true strength-on-strength matchup. But we are not asking for a track meet, we are asking Denver and Oklahoma City to generate average scoring production from both sides. Another key for an Over is that elite offenses can still score efficiently against elite defenses when the shot diet is clean, and Denver’s offense is built to consistently generate those looks.

The other factor is Oklahoma City’s offensive ceiling changing today. Reports indicate that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been cleared to return from injury, which raises OKC’s ability to sustain scoring across all four quarters. That is enormous. Finally, this matchup has already shown it can reach this neighborhood. When these two teams met at the beginning of this month, 232 total points were scored. Even if OKC’s defense remains elite, the Nuggets’ efficiency profile plus SGA’s return gives this game several paths to clear the number. Take the Over.

Nuggets vs Thunder prediction: Over 231.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to Over 232.