Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/19/25

Miami’s narrow win over New York on Monday has shifted the market in a predictable — and exploitable — direction. The Heat have become a force at home, and the betting public is now treating them as if they’re indestructible in South Beach. That reaction alone is enough to inflate this number. If Miami hadn’t edged out the Knicks, the line here would be far more modest — the Heat likely a small favorite or even a coin-flip proposition. Instead, they’re being priced as if they can’t miss.

The Warriors still possess the offensive firepower and spacing to keep virtually any game competitive. Their shooting profile, led by Curry and supported by multiple deep threats, travels well against anyone. Golden State’s dynamic perimeter attack prevents opponents from controlling rhythm for all 48 minutes. Anytime Miami builds a run, the Warriors can erase it. The market is overreacting to Miami’s recent home dominance, and that gives value to the underdog. Golden State is not only capable of staying inside this number — they’re capable of winning outright.

Warriors vs Heat prediction: Warriors +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +6.