Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, Odds and Game 6 Picks for Friday, 05/02/25

Jimmy Butler to score 20+ points (-170)

Head coach Steve Kerr threw in the towel very early in Game 5 with the score seemingly out of hand. Jimmy Butler and the rest of the starters went out in the middle of the 3rd quarter and none of them logged more than 25 minutes, so they should be relatively well-rested ahead of a crucial Game 6 here. Jimmy responded well following his back injury suffered in Game 2, returning 2 games later to lead the Warriors with 27 points and 6 assists on over 58% shooting from the field. Although it looked like a nasty fall, that stat line tells us Butler hasn’t been too effected by the injury and the Warriors can count on him tonight.

Playing in situations like these is nothing new for Butler — so far in his career, he’s participated in 11 Game 6s while posting averages of 23.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists. With Steph Curry seemingly affected by a wrist injury to his shooting hand, the Warriors will need Playoff Jimmy to show up here, so I’m counting on him to get at least 20 points here.

Fred VanVleet 3+ made threes (-154)

With the moment being seemingly too big for the Rockets’ leading scorer Jalen Green, Houston has turned to their veteran and champion Fred VanVleet. The 31-year-old has answered the call, scoring 25 and 26 over the past 2 games while leading the team in scoring in Wednesday’s Game 5 victory. It took him 2 games to settle in with his long ball, but after a rocky start he’s shooting it at 55.6% over the past 3 games while making 5 per game.

VanVleet’s accuracy from distance is one of the main reasons why Golden State is allowing 43.2% of threes to go in over the past 3 games, as that’s a significant increase compared to their regular-season average of 36.4%, which ranked only 21st in the NBA. Experience comes into play in moments like these, and with the Rockets’ season on the line, I expect VanVleet to show us why exactly he got that big contract when he opted to sign with Houston back in 2023.

Draymond Green to record 2+ steals (-122)

I anticipate the defensive intensity being at an all-time series high in Friday’s Game 6 with the season being on the line for Houston. Golden State should also step it up, knowing that if they lose here it’ll be very tough on the road in a Game 7 scenario. I’m looking at Draymond Green to be the focal point of the defense, which has been the case in most games for Golden State this season. His steals numbers have been very consistent over the past 10 games – he’s averaging 2.2 per game, and only twice during that stretch has he failed to deliver that number along with just once in this series (Game 4).

It took Green only 18 minutes to record a pair of steals in the Game 5 loss, as Steve Kerr opted to pull all starters just 5 minutes into the 3rd quarter. The crowd at Chase Center is going to be wild and I fully expect Green to feed off of their energy in a vital win for Golden State.