Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/28/26

The Heat are going to get a lot of love here because they are at home and a different team in South Beach. That’s all well and good, but the problem is Houston plays winning basketball on the road. And more importantly, their recipe for success is a bit of a problem for a team like Miami to solve.

Houston leans into physicality, defense, and optimizing its transition game. The Rockets believe in rim protection. For a team like Miami that likes to play with pace and light up the scoreboard, this could be a styles clash that does not benefit them in the least. The Rockets can keep things slow, they can minimize second chances, and wear the Heat down by forcing them to bang down low for four quarters. However, because Miami has won nine of the last ten meetings and covered in the last four contests between these two, the temptation is to back the Heat at home with trends supporting that decision. If anything though, that makes the Heat overvalued, not the opposite. Moreover, Miami is one of the best covering sides this season at 34-25 ATS while the Rockets sit four games under .500 at 27-31 ATS. This is a great spot to actually buy low on the Rockets in a game that they can win emphatically.

Rockets vs Heat prediction: Rockets -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.