Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, Odds and Picks for Monday, 06/16/25

The NBA Finals heads back to Oklahoma City tied 2-2 in what’s been a surprisingly even matchup between the Thunder and the Pacers. Many wrote off Indiana before the series began, but their resilience has kept things tight. Still, Game 5 sets up perfectly for the Thunder, especially in the first part of the game. OKC has consistently come out firing at home — they ranked 2nd in the NBA in 1st quarter net rating during the regular season and are +8.7 in first quarter scoring margin in home playoff games. That early energy, fueled by a raucous Paycom Center crowd, has been their calling card.

While the Pacers have made a habit of storming back in second halves, including double-digit comebacks in multiple games during the playoffs and this series, their slow starts continue to be an issue. Indiana ranks bottom-5 in 1st quarter point differential this postseason. And though they’ve proven doubters wrong, this feels like a prime spot where OKC flexes early dominance. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 28.4 PPG in the playoffs, and his control over tempo early in games has helped OKC build momentum.

The full-game -9.5 spread is tough to trust with how unpredictable Indiana’s second-half runs have been…and I don’t want to stray away from my pick (OKC) to win the finals. Instead, the value lies in backing the Thunder early.

Pacers vs Thunder Prediction: Thunder 1Q -3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.5