Los Angeles Clippers vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tuesday, 04/29/25

Arguably the best series of the opening round to this point has come in the Western Conference between the Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets, with 3 of the 4 games being decided by one possession. And while I haven’t had the greatest handle on this series from a totals perspective, I’m of the belief that the Nuggets miraculous victory on an Aaron Gordon dunk at the buzzer has set us up for a great zig-zag spot in favor of the Clippers on Tuesday. 

While the momentum has swung back and forth in this series, the Clippers are the better, deeper roster and the more consistent team on a game-to-game basis. It all starts on defense for Los Angeles, as head coach Ty Lue’s team boasts one of the best defenses in the league. In fact, outside of the brilliance of Nikola Jokic, Denver has really struggled to find consistent success in the halfcourt in this series. We’ve also seen Denver’s lack of depth rear its ugly head, as the Nuggets are even more limited without the services of Russell Westbrook off the bench. Jokic has put up his usual excellent numbers in this series, but the Clippers have forced him into a number of careless mistakes, most of which happened in Games 2 and 3. While Jokic is coming off a tremendous game, there is something to be said for the struggles of Denver’s supporting cast, particularly Jamal Murray, who has struggled to get anything going offensively all series long. With Murray’s limitations at the moment, along with Michael Porter Jr’s precarious shoulder injury situation, it’s difficult to see Denver getting consistent production from the non-Jokic players once again on Tuesday.

On the other side of the ball, while Denver’s defensive effort is markedly improved from where it was in the regular season, this is still a bottom 10 unit in defensive rating, and those woes have particularly showed up against high-level competition. That is exactly what the Clippers bring to the table with James Harden and Kawhi Leonard both turning in stellar performances in this series thus far. The Nuggets have not shown an ability to slow down either player, and that’s before Harden gets Ivica Zubac involved in the pick-and-roll game. Ultimately, I’m expecting a slight regression to the mean for Denver’s defense and plenty of high-pressure minutes for a weakened Nuggets offense in a game that could come down to a couple of key open shots on either side. I trust Los Angeles to make those shots and win a massive Game 5 on the road.

Clippers vs Nuggets prediction: Los Angeles ML (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

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