HomeNBANBA PredictionsLos Angeles Lakers vs Cleveland Cavaliers Prediction, Odds and Picks

Los Angeles Lakers vs Cleveland Cavaliers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/28/26

Updated: 12:41 PM ET Jan 28, 2026

Rocket ArenaESPN

Lakers

7:10 PM ETToday

Cavaliers

WWLWW	Last 5	LWWWW
28-17	Record	28-20
22-23-0	ATS Record	18-29-1
25-20	O/U Record	22-26

Lakers vs Cavaliers Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick

CLE Cavaliers -3.0(-110)

Reasoning

Sentiment and narrative. The market gobbles that stuff up. And tonight, this contest is all about those concepts. The prodigal son returns home, as LeBron James makes another trip back to where it all started. The place where he led the Cavs to their only NBA Championship. The market is backing LeBron and the Lakers because they are investing in the sentiment and narrative. He comes home, gets a win and moves on. As outright underdogs, it’s hard not to bite on King James and company. But that’s the point. The oddsmakers want action on Los Angeles because the storyline and namesake attract attention.

The Cavaliers, meanwhile, do not have the same clout. Cleveland is one of the worst teams against the spread this season at 18-30. The Cavs have floundered on the big stage against the Knicks on Christmas Day in nationally-syndicated showcase games like this one, and their profile overall is exactly the type of side that the market would fade. The set-up is by design. Peel back the marketability of the Lakers — most notably LeBron — and combine that with Cleveland actually showing some profit, and suddenly the Cavaliers are bigger favorites. The Cavs have played a much tougher schedule than the Lakers in terms of strength, with opponents averaging a win percentage above .500, while LA’s sits 19th slightly lower than .500. Here is the other kicker: the Cavs expeted win percentage sits close to .600 at .587, while the Lakers have been punching above their weight with an EWL of .502 despite sitting 28-17. Where are we trying to go with this? Cleveland has played a tougher schedule and is legit. The Lakers have been catching bounces against cupcakes. The Cavs make the most of those ingredients tonight. Let’s lay the 3-pointer.

Lakers vs Cavaliers prediction: Cleveland -3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Show Bio

College football handicapper for Pickswise, specializing in college football, soccer and college basketball. Much prefer betting on the smaller/forgotten games than the big matchups, where the lines are a lot more vulnerable. PhD in Victorian Literature, putting my skills of the written word to the test with betting analysis.

Same Game Parlay

Player Points

M. Smart (LAL) - Over 10.5 pts

Player Points

D. Ayton (LAL) - Under 9.5 pts

Player Threes Made

S. Merrill (CLE) - Over 2.5 threes

Reasoning

Lakers vs Cavaliers parlay pick: Marcus Smart over 10.5 points (+100)

Marcus Smart has been a very consistent contributor for the Los Angeles Lakers lately, managing double-digit points in 7 of his last 8 games. That has helped his minutes too, with him playing at least 30 in 4 straight games ahead of tonight. He will now get the chance to keep his streak going against a Cleveland Cavalier team that is 18th in defensive rating and has an undersized backcourt. They are also in the top 10 of the league in pace which should create plenty of possessions for both sides. With Luka Doncic and LeBron James drawing the defensive attention, Smart can provide them with a reliable outlet considering he is making 38.5% of his 3-point attempts this month. That is one way he will rack up points tonight.

Lakers vs Cavaliers parlay pick: Deandre Ayton under 9.5 points (+100)

One Laker who has had a much tougher time lately is Deandre Ayton. Over the last 4 games just once has he reached 24 minutes of playing time or 50 percent shooting from the field. For a center who does not space the floor, that level of inefficiency is awful, so it is no surprise to see it impacting his playing time. Unsurprisingly he did not reach double-digit points in any of those contests. The matchup is not easy here either. Jarrett Allen will be able to match him physically and is a strong one-on-one defender. Over the last 10 games the Cavaliers have given up the second fewest paint points of all teams in the NBA. With Ayton relying on his points there, he should be in for another low scoring night.

Lakers vs Cavaliers parlay pick: Sam Merrill over 2.5 made threes (-150)

Cavaliers guard is probable to make his return tonight and should continue to make it rain from deep, just as he has done all year. He is averaging 3.5 made threes per game this season, but he had managed to make 4 or more in 6 of his last 7 games. The one game that he missed that number was the game he got injured and played just 10 minutes. This will be a great opponent to for him to come back against. Over the last 10 games the Lakers are in the bottom 10 of the league in opponent 3-point percentage and opponent 3-pointers made per game. Merrill, who is a 45.5% shooter from deep this season, will thrive.

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Lakers vs Cavaliers Same Game Parlay

Top Trends

Point Spread

The Lakers have covered in 14 of their 25 road games this season.

Game Totals

9 of the Lakers' last 11 road trips to the Cavaliers have gone over the Total.

Money Line

The Cavaliers have won 7 of their last 10 home games.

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