Memphis Grizzlies vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/18/25

Memphis Grizzlies +6 over San Antonio Spurs (-110)

It’s been a tough start to the season for the Grizzlies, but I wouldn’t write them off so easily ahead of this matchup. Ja Morant will miss yet another game, but in his absence, the Grizz actually held their ground pretty well against Cleveland, losing by only 8 points. They had an 11-point lead at one point in that game and their ball movement was so much better without Morant on the court. With the Spurs missing Victor Wembanyama, there could be issues for San Antonio with guarding the paint in this game, especially against Jaren Jackson Jr., who is one of the better scorers close to the basket.

Memphis holds a dominant head-to-head record with 17 wins in 19 meetings; they’ve also got an active 11-game win streak at the Frost Bank Center as well. Injuries have derailed both sides, which makes predicting this game all the more difficult. Wemby’s absence hurts the Spurs a lot more than Morant’s hurts the Grizz. Memphis played well against the Cavaliers so I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and back them to cover as road underdogs here.

Jaren Jackson Jr. to score 20+ points (-260)

I briefly touched on JJJ’s scoring near the basket, and he just had his best game of the season against the Boston Celtics over the weekend, scoring 26 points. Although he isn’t averaging as many points as he did over the past 2 seasons, his efficiency numbers are fairly similar to what he’s averaged in previous years for Memphis. His shot attempts should be going up in Morant’s absence as he is now the clear-cut number one option on offense for the Grizz.

Not having to face Victor Wembanyama helps Jackson Jr. massively as it should save him a lot of energy on defense and make life easier when trying to score on the other end. In 10 meetings with the Spurs, JJJ is averaging 24.1 points per game while scoring at least 20 in 6 of those. The last time he played San Antonio, he finished with 42 points. Scoring 20 shouldn’t be too difficult here.

Keldon Johnson over 6.5 rebounds (+100)

Keldon Johnson put on an absolute clinic in his last game against the Sacramento Kings, coming off the bench to score 14 points and grab 12 rebounds in just 23 minutes. His energy levels are unmatched and that type of effort is exactly what the Spurs will need if they want to get a result against Memphis tonight. Although he plays at the small forward position, Johnson is the Spurs’ 3rd leading rebounder behind Wemby and Luke Kornet. With the big fella out injured, San Antonio has to find a way to make up for his average of 12.9 rebounds per game.

The Grizzlies allow the 5th-most rebounds in the NBA and the most rebounds to opposing small forwards, so Johnson has a great shot of going over his projected total. He has cleared this line 4 times in 10 meetings, so we are getting great value on him collecting 7 boards at +100 odds.