Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/01/26

The Detroit Pistons must be glad to return home to begin the New Year, as 7 of their last 8 games to close out 2025 came on the road. Detroit managed to go 5-3 over that 8-game stretch, including a 128-106 win over the Los Angeles Lakers on December 30, in which the Lakers were outscored 58-41 in the second half. Now 7 of Detroit’s next 8 games will be on its home court, beginning Thursday night when the visiting Miami Heat make the trip north. Miami last played on Monday and cruised to a 24-point win over the shorthanded Denver Nuggets, who are without Nikola Jokic for at least the next couple of weeks. The victory for the Heat extended their win streak to 3 games, with their other 2 wins coming against the Hawks and Pacers.

Miami averaged 138.3 points over their 3-game win streak, but Detroit is certainly a step up in competition as they top the Eastern Conference standings. The Pistons rank 2nd behind the Thunder in defensive rating, and over their last 8 games they have allowed just 110.7 points per game to their opponents. Aside from Tobias Harris being listed as doubtful with left hip soreness and Tyler Herro remaining out for Miami, there are no major injury updates to be aware of. These teams last played one another at the end of November in Miami and the Pistons not only covered as 3.5-point underdogs, but they won the game outright without Jalen Duren. With their leading rebounder and second leading scorer in the lineup on Thursday, I like Detroit to win and cover the spread on their home court.

Heat vs Pistons prediction: Detroit Pistons -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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