Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/19/26

The Miami Heat will be going into tonight’s game against the Golden State Warriors without one of their leading scorers. Tyler Herro did not travel with the team for this road trip, which could really impact their ability to turn around their fortunes on the road. The Heat have won just 7 of 20 games away from home. The Warriors, on the other hand, have turned their arena into a fortress this season with just 6 losses so far and 16 wins. Their point differential at home is 7.7, a mark that places them sixth among all NBA teams. They have picked up 3 straight wins at there, too — all by double-digit margins.

Over the last 10 games the Heat have had some issues getting stops, ranking 18th in defensive rating. It is something they can hardly afford to keep up, as they have ranked in the bottom 10 in offensive rating during that time. Without Herro, we could see a further dropoff. The Warriors have been electric scoring the ball, themselves, ranking third in offensive rating. With Draymond Green probable to play tonight, their defense should also be in order. Green is more than capable of making life tough on Bam Adebayo in the paint. Over the last 10 games the Warriors have been leading the league in 3-pointers made, as well, and should have enough firepower to cover the spread in this one.

Heat vs Warriors prediction: Golden State -5.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -7.

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