Milwaukee Bucks vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/20/26

At first glance, New Orleans is the last team most bettors want to trust, especially as a favorite. The Pelicans have lacked consistency, their public perception is shaky, and they haven’t given the market many reasons to feel comfortable laying points with them. That lack of appeal is exactly what creates the value here. Who is lining up to back New Orleans, let alone lay points with them? Especially after the Bucks beat them in overtime earlier this month when the Pels were the chalk. The answer: not many, and that’s the point.

This is a spot where the matchup and game environment matter more than reputation. The Pelicans don’t need to be a great team to cover this number; they just need to control the physical areas of the game. At home, New Orleans can generate separation through paint pressure, offensive rebounding, and trips to the free-throw line, scoring sources that don’t rely on perimeter variance. Milwaukee’s volatility plays into that profile. When the Bucks aren’t efficient from outside, their offense can stall. That creates scoring drought potential, and droughts are what turn competitive games into multi-possession margins. The best part is New Orleans doesn’t need to dominate. In a game where public confidence is low, this is an uncomfortable favorite worth backing. New Orleans is favored here for a reason.

Bucks vs Pelicans prediction: Pelicans -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.