Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/28/26

This Western Conference clash between the Minnesota Timberwolves (28-19) and Dallas Mavericks (19-27) looks poised for a slower, methodical pace that favors an under total. Minnesota enters averaging around 119.0 points per game, one of the better offensive marks in the league, but their recent games have seen fewer explosive scoring bursts than earlier in the season — the Wolves have also faced defensive wrinkles that slow possessions and reduce transition opportunities. Minnesota’s defense ranks around the middle of the league in points allowed (about 114.3 ppg) and its focus on half-court execution often results in longer possessions and lower possessions overall.

Dallas also profiles as a team that can contribute to a lower-scoring script. The Mavericks average roughly 114.3 points per game, and while they can score efficiently in bursts, their offense tends to stall against disciplined defenses that force contested looks and limit second-chance opportunities. Dallas’ field goal efficiency and shot creation have been inconsistent, and their recent outputs suggest they won’t blow the game open on their own. Meanwhile, head-to-head history between these 2 has included several games without runaway scoring — the last meeting saw Minnesota win 120-96. Combined with the fact that both teams rank middle of the pack defensively and prefer half-court sets, this matchup sets up for fewer total possessions.

Timberwolves vs Mavericks prediction: Under 228.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 226.5.

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