Portland Trail Blazers vs Sacramento Kings Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/20/25

This matchup sets up perfectly for points, and the number, while high, still doesn’t fully account for how these two teams prefer to play. Neither Portland nor Sacramento has shown any real commitment to defense this season. What they have shown is a willingness to push tempo, take early shots, and trade buckets rather than grind possessions down. That combination is exactly what you want when targeting an Over here.

Both teams are surrendering roughly 122 points per game, which tells you defense is optional on most nights. More importantly, neither side has the personnel nor the scheme to suddenly flip the script and slow things down. Portland leaks points in transition and struggles to protect the rim, while Sacramento routinely gives up open looks on the perimeter and gets caught in rotation. That creates a steady diet of high-quality shots on both ends. The beauty of this Over is margin independence. We don’t need a tight game, a late foul fest, or overtime. We just need scoring. If each team simply plays to its season averages, we’re right in range. And if one side catches fire — which is very much on the table in a matchup like this — 130+ from one team alone isn’t out of the question which puts in even better position because even a marginally better showing from either defense still gets us home. This profiles as a fast, loose, shot-heavy game where defense takes a back seat. That’s the environment Overs are built on. 238.5? We can easily see 250 points combined here, no problem. Move in hard on the Over.

Trailblazers vs Kings prediction: Over 238.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.