Ricky Dimon
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The storylines heading into last year’s Australian Open were dominated by Novak Djokovic getting deported out of the country due to being unvaccinated. Fast forward 12 months and the men’s singles event will once again be without the #1 player in the world. But this time around it isn’t Djokovic. Carlos Alcaraz is the top-ranked man on tour and he is out with a leg injury. With Alcaraz sidelined, Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas headline the list of title favorites behind Djokovic.
With the season’s first Grand Slam set to begin on Monday (Sunday evening United States time), it’s time to break down the odds and take a look at my best bets.
Also check out my women’s Australian Open tennis best bets.
Australian Open men’s singles odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Novak Djokovic -110
Daniil Medvedev +600
Stefanos Tsitsipas +1400
Nick Kyrgios +1600
Rafael Nadal +1700
Taylor Fritz +1800
Felix Auger-Aliassime +2000
Jannik Sinner +2000
Holger Rune +2000
Alexander Zverev +3000
Casper Ruud +3000
Matteo Berrettini +3500
Sebastian Korda +3500
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3-star value play: Daniil Medvedev (+600)
Daniil Medvedev doesn’t have a favorable draw in a tough top half of the bracket, but at +600 he still has great value. The 26-year-old has reached back-to-back Australian Open finals, losing to Djokovic in 2021 and to Nadal in 2022. A title would not be Medvedev’s first major, however, as he triumphed at the 2021 U.S. Open, crushing Djokovic in the championship match. That propelled the Russian to #1 in the world and the pressure of expectations – along with the Wimbledon ban – seemed to weigh on him last year. Now that Nadal is the top seed and Djokovic is the heavy favorite, Medvedev is flying under the radar. He isn’t going unnoticed by me.
2-star value play: Stefanos Tsitsipas (+1400)
Stefanos Tsitsipas also finds himself in the top half of the draw, but there is some good news for both him and Medvedev: Djokovic is on the other side, so they would not have to face the 35-year-old Serb until the final. Additionally for Tsitsipas, he would not run into either Nadal or Medvedev until the semis. It’s a manageable path for the Greek, who is a Grand Slam runner-up (2021 French Open) and is already a 3-time semifinalist at the Aussie Open. Moreover, Tsitsipas has started this season strongly and compiled a 4-0 record at the United Cup team competition with victories over David Goffin, Grigor Dimitrov, Borna Coric and Matteo Berrettini.
1-star value play: Taylor Fritz (+1800)
I was on the Fritz bandwagon for much of last year and it generally paid off. The American won the Indian Wells Masters, reached the Wimbledon quarters and finished at #9 in the world after capping off the season with a semifinal appearance at the Nitto ATP Finals. There is no reason to get off the wagon now. Fritz began the 2023 campaign by leading the USA to the United Cup title, beating Berrettini, Alexander Zverev and Hubert Hurkacz along the way. The #8 seed could not have a better draw in the bottom half of the bracket, so I fully expect him to earn a semifinal spot. Once there, anything can happen.
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