Bastad Swedish Open tennis preview, predictions and best bets: Rublev returns from Wimbledon ban

Andrey Rublev celebrates at the 2019 U.S. Open.
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Ricky Dimon

Tennis · 1 month ago

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Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports--just about any and all you can think of!--and coaching tennis in Atlanta, Ga. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me.

Clay-court tennis is back for a few more weeks in between the grass-court festivities at Wimbledon and the final major of the season on the hard courts of the U.S. Open. Although the tournament this week in Bastad, Sweden is a small one (worth 250 ranking points to the champion), it boasts a strong field. Among the headliners are Casper Ruud, Andrey Rublev and 2020 U.S. Open champion Dominic Thiem.

Now it’s time to take a look at the odds to win the Bastad title and discuss the best bets to be made. It should be noted that the WTA Tour does not play this event, so there are no betting opportunities on the women’s side.

We wrapped up Wimbledon by going 2-1 with our bets on both the men’s and women’s finals (5-2 in our last seven bets overall) while also cashing our 3-star play on Novak Djokovic -120 outright. Let’s keep our tennis picks momentum going!

Bastad Swedish Open tennis odds to win

Here are the odds for the Bastad men’s singles tournament, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Casper Ruud +160
Andrey Rublev +300
Pablo Carreno Busta +1100
Diego Schwartzman +1100
Roberto Bautista Agut +1200
Holger Rune +1400
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina +1600
Sebastian Baez +2000
Lorenzo Sonego +2800
Emil Ruusuvuori +2800
Laslo Djere +3000
Lorenzo Musetti +3500
Albert Ramos-Vinolas +3500
Dominic Thiem +4000
Stan Wawrinka +4000
Aslan Karatsev +4000

3-star value play: Andrey Rublev (+300)

As every tennis fan – and probably every sports fan in general – knows, Russians (and Belarusians) were banned from the All-England Club this summer. That means while everyone else was slugging it out on grass at Wimbledon, Rublev was resting. He was also practicing on… you guessed it… clay. Therefore the world No. 8’s preparation for Bastad was much better than that of almost everyone else in the field. Rublev’s clay-court exploits this spring included a title in Belgrade (beat Djokovic in the final) plus quarterfinal showings at the Madrid Masters and at the French Open. As the second seed in Bastad, Rublev has a first-round bye and that should send him well on to a successful and hopefully title-winning performance.

2-star value play: Albert Ramos-Vinolas (+3500)

In seven career trips to Bastad, Ramos-Vinolas has reached at least the quarterfinals on five occasions. That includes a title in 2016 and a semifinal appearance in 2019. There is no reason why he can’t win it again. The 34-year-old Spaniard advanced to the Estoril semis during the clay-court swing this spring and he pushed Carlos Alcaraz to five sets at the French Open. At this bloated +3500 price, Ramos-Vinolas has great value.

1-star value play: Sebastian Baez (+2000)

Baez has been one of the breakout stars on the ATP Tour in 2022. The 21-year-old Argentine has soared to No. 35 in the rankings thanks in part to his first career title on the red clay of Estoril and a runner-up effort in Santiago (also on clay). Baez extended Alexander Zverev to five sets at Roland Garros and had a match point in that contest, just as Ramos-Vinolas did against Alcaraz. Baez’s Bastad draw is a favorable one, as he would not have to face Rublev until the semifinals and Ruud – the top seed – until the final.

The Pickswise tennis handicappers are on hand throughout the entire tennis season, bringing you the best free expert Tennis predictions and picks from top events including the U.S. Open, French Open, Wimbledon and the Australian Open.

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