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As quickly as it came in, April is in its final days, meaning the first month of the MLB season is just about wrapped. We’ve been treated to a lot of surprise performances by players and teams alike, in what’s been a wildly unpredictable season thus far. The chaos is what makes the game great, but can also wreak havoc on bettors. Before you place any wagers on sides or totals, make sure you check out our full game previews and picks.
When looking over today’s player prop slate, I immediately keyed in on individual matchups for two pitchers – one great, and one on the tougher end of the spectrum.
Lucas Giolito (White Sox) over 8.5 strikeouts (+110)
Line available at publishing.
It’s been an interesting past eight days for the White Sox ace. Last Monday, he suffered one of the worst outings of his big league career, allowing eight runs in just one inning versus the Red Sox. Then, he was pushed from his next start after cutting his finger on a bottle. With both events in the past, Giolito has a fantastic opportunity to rebound tonight versus the Tigers.
To say the Tigers have struggled to make contact at the plate this season is putting it mildly. As a team, Detroit strikes out the fifth-most times per game, including the highest K rate versus righties. The team also swings and misses at the second-highest rate in the majors, and chases balls out of the strike zone at the highest rate. Despite his dud versus the Red Sox, Giolito still possesses a whiff and chase rates in the 68th and 81st percentile, respectively.
It’s a big number, sure, but one that Giolito has been able to hit in seven of his last 16 starts, dating back to last season. He should be able to effectively mix in his change up and slider to keep the Tigers’ batters off balance. In examining the likely line-up for Detroit, I count 6-7 plus matchups for Giolito.
Taking the matchup into consideration, I love this play, especially with plus odds.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox.
David Peterson (Mets) under 5.5 strikeouts (-155)
Line available at publishing.
It’s a bit expensive, but I’m surprised books are even giving us the option of under 5.5 on the Mets left-hander. Through his first thirteen starts in the big leagues, Peterson has stayed under this total ten times. He twice went over versus a free-swinging Braves team last season, and had one dominant ten strikeout performance versus a Phillies team who has struggled versus lefties this season. When scaling down to a line of under 4.5, Peterson has still stayed under in nine of his thirteen starts.
Still, Peterson’s whiff rate sits at league average, and has struggled to keep runners off base, with a 1.35 WHIP, in 13 1/3 innings thus far. Even in his minor league career, Peterson averaged less than a strikeout per inning.
And tonight, Peterson faces a tall order versus the hot bats of the Red Sox. Boston leads the league in batting average and is third in on-base percentage. Specifically, versus left-handed pitching, the Sox have the lowest strikeout rate (17.8%). In his brief career, Peterson’s strikeouts rates are heavily skewed towards left-handed hitters (28.6% vs. 17.8% against righties). Tonight, he’s likely to face a lineup carrying just one left-handed hitter (Rafael Devers).
Sometimes you have to pay a bit of a premium with the low totals of these strikeout props — but this line is too good to pass on.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets.
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