JutPicks
Does it get any better than this? A full 15-game slate with MLB action all day long. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays lead off the party with an 11:35 am ET game, while the slate concludes with a divisional battle between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves. Let’s dive into our best MLB player prop bets headlined by fading a couple of starting pitchers.
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Colin Rea (MIL) Under 4.5 strikeouts (-125)
Line available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Were you burned on Corbin Burnes under 7.5 strikeouts yesterday? Yeah, me too. Well, I’m going right back to backing the San Francisco Giants offense. After an encouraging 1st inning from the Giants, Burnes locked in and recorded 8 Ks in 7 innings. The former CY Young had a ton of whiffs and looked like an elite pitcher again. Luckily for us, Colin Rea is not Burnes.
Rea ranks in the 26th and 16th percentile in K rate and chase rate and I’ll gladly fade that. The Giants see the 5th-most pitches per plate appearance and can eat up at Rea’s pitch count, which already seems to have a cap on it. He hasn’t thrown more than 90 pitches all season.
Rea has gone under this line in his last 3 starts and 5 of his 7 starts this season. He made a bullpen appearance earlier this month, so we will not count that. Before Burnes, the Giants kept elite pitchers under their strikeout mark as they held Freddy Peralta, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and others in check within the last week. Expect the Giants offense to wake up and platoon left-handed bats in their lineup to crush Rea.
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Graham Ashcraft (CIN) Under 4.5 strikeouts (-118)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Graham Ashcraft showed great promise in the opening month of the season. He had a 2.10 ERA in April and struck out 13 batters in his first 2 starts. Fast forward to May and it has been a complete 180. Ashcraft has a 10.03 ERA this month and has stayed under this line in 4 of 5 starts. He’ll face off against a familiar foe today in the Chicago Cubs, a team he saw on 4 occasions last season.
Ashcraft has been shredded by right-handed batters this year. He’s allowing a .321 batting average and a strikeout rate below 17%. The Cubs will most likely go to 6 right-handers today to get to Ashcraft early. The top of the lineup features Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, who all have at least 6 plate appearances in their career against Ashcraft. His 17th percentile K rate and below-average chase rate should give bettors confidence in this under.
You can also check out our MLB mega parlay and YRFI/NRFI Best Bets
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