Best MLB prop bets for today 8/27: A Sonny forecast in Minnesota

Minnesota Twins relief pitcher Sonny Gray (54) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Oakland Athletics at RingCentral Coliseum.
Photo of Javan Shouey

Javan Shouey

MLB

Show Bio

A lifelong sports fan from Northwestern Pennsylvania. Die-hard supporter of the Steelers, Pirates and Cavaliers. Insane passion for writing about sports and helping others improve. Incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise is giving me.

For the last 14 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and I’m more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.

We had a great day yesterday with these plays, let’s keep it going.

Read below to see the props I am eyeing up on Saturday’s MLB slate.

Sonny Gray (MIN) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-130)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140.

Yesterday we faded this San Francisco offense against Twins rookie Joe Ryan, and the young stud produced 6 scoreless innings. Tonight, they will face veteran spin-rate master Sonny Gray. The 32-year-old Gray is having a solid debut season for his new team in Minnesota. His 3.10 ERA and 1.12 WHIP are supported by strong advanced metrics including a 72nd percentile barrel rate. Gray ranks 56th percentile or better in xERA, xSLG, BB%, K% and average exit velocity. Minnesota has done a good job with not overextending his workload, as Gray averages a shade under 80 pitches per start. While the pitch count varies from start to start, Gray has gone past 6 IP only twice this season.

Gray has held his opponents to 5 or fewer hits in 14 of his 19 starts, 1 or 0 walks in 12 of 19 starts, and most importantly 2 or fewer earned runs in 14 of his 19 starts. This includes 3 straight home starts and 5 of his last 6 starts overall, with the lone miss against the Dodgers. Gray’s home and road splits are hardly discernable. He has a below-average fly-ball rate and above-average weak-contact and pop-up rates. His cutter’s well-above average horizontal movement results in a ton of looking strikes which is always advantageous for pitchers. I mentioned his spin rate earlier, and for good reason as he ranks 97th percentile in fastball spin rate and 89th percentile in curveball spin rate. When Gray is on, he becomes very hard to hit, especially for poor offenses.

Against right-handed pitching, San Francisco qualifies as a poor offense in my eyes. In the last 30 days against right-handers, they rank bottom 8 in wOBA, OPS and AVG. Of the last 25 right-handed starters to face the Giants, 20 of them have allowed 2 or fewer earned runs. This includes 2 combined earned runs allowed from Joe Ryan, Matt Manning, Drew Hutchison and Ryan Feltner across 23 IP. The Minnesota bullpen is fresh after using two low-leverage arms last night and should be able to relieve Gray with solid arms if he were to run into trouble and leave runners on base.

Eduardo Rodriguez (DET) under 17.5 outs recorded (-110)

Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds.

Eduardo Rodriguez was a major off-season signing for the Tigers in terms of money committed, but not so much in terms of production. The 29-year-old left-hander has made only 9 starts for his new team and the results in those starts haven’t been the greatest. His first 8 starts saw 3 or more runs allowed 6 times. Rodriguez then had a 3-month absence from the team before returning for his last turn in the rotation. Despite a scoreless 5-inning performance, Rodriguez was pulled after only 78 pitches. It makes sense they would want to protect their investment for the future with this season chalked up as a lost cause.

His advanced stats are lacking as he ranks 40th percentile in xERA, 41st percentile in xSLG, 44th percentile in barrel rate and 17th percentile in BB%. Tons of contact is made against him as he ranks just 2nd percentile in whiff rate. His fly-ball rate sits 9.6% higher than league average as well. On the road, E-Rod has a 5.30 ERA and now will head to Texas to face the Rangers. In the last 30 days against left-handed pitching Texas ranks 15th in OBP and walk rate and have a wRC+ of 103. Texas has scored 5, 7, and 7 runs in 3 of their last 4 games against a left-handed starter.

While his first start back with Texas saw only 4 hits allowed, he still walked 3 batters and his xBA on his two most used pitches was .489 and .319. Detroit received 6 innings from Matt Manning Wednesday and had the day off Thursday. Their bullpen used Garrett Hill for 3 innings and two other relievers for 20 and 9 pitches respectively. The bullpen should be fresh and ready to relieve Rodriguez if he either gets into trouble or remains limited with his workload.

Pickswise is the home of free MLB Picks. Check out the latest MLB Prop Bets and MLB Parlays as well as our MLB Best Bets from the experts.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
Unibet

$100

Get a $100 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $100 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $100

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

BetRivers

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet on Colts vs. Broncos!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make your first deposit & get up to $500 in free bets

To get $500 in free bets, wager $500

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 No Sweat First Bet on Colts vs. Broncos

Sign up for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account and make your first deposit of $10+

Place your first bet up to $1,000!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

Must be 21+. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

DraftKings

$200

Bet $5+ on Colts or Broncos ML, Get $200 If Your Team Wins

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on the pre-game ML in any sport

Win $200 if your team wins

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$800

Get 4x $200 In Free Bets on Colts vs. Broncos

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Bet up to $200 and If you lose, you get a refund

You will receive Free Bet(s) in the amount of the losing wager(s), up to $200 each for four days.

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,250

Get a $1,250 risk-free bet on Colts vs. Broncos

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Place your first bet of $10 or more

If your first bet loses, you’ll receive a refund up to $1,250 from Caesars in free bets

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet on Colts vs. Broncos

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$100

Bet $5+ on MLB and get $100 in Free Bets Instantly!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on any MLB team to win their next game

Win $100 no matter what!

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 in Free Bets on Colts vs. Broncos

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Free Bets on Colts vs. Broncos

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

Underdog Fantasy

$100

First deposit is 100% matched up to $100 with Underdog Fantasy

Sign up for a new account with Underdog Fantasy

Make your first deposit

Every dollar (up to $100) will be matched! Deposit $25, get $50; deposit $100, get $200, etc

Must be 21+ to play. Terms & conditions apply