Best MLB player prop picks for today 5/14: Guardians extend Jack Leiter's struggles

Cleveland Guardians second baseman Andres Gimenez, right, celebrates with left fielder Steven Kwan after hitting a two run home run during the fifth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Progressive Field.
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Kevin Davies


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MLB handicapper for Pickswise hailing from beautiful Boston, Massachusetts. I’ve been playing baseball since I could walk and betting games since I could (legally) gamble! I love a YRFI & NRFI bet and always on the hunt for a winning parlay.
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It’s another busy day in baseball with plenty of action throughout the day, including a double-header between the Nationals and White Sox on the South Side of Chicago. I have found 2 edges in the MLB prop market for tonight and both are priced at more-than-reasonable odds. Let’s get into my best MLB player prop bets for Tuesday, May 14, while you can also find out our MLB picks for today’s action.

Cleveland Guardians team total Over 4.5 (-110)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing

The once promising prospect has become a liability on the mound. Jack Leiter was a stud at Vanderbilt and had sky-high expectations for his professional career. However, Leiter ran into some problems early on. His velocity was no longer blowing hitters away and his slider was being smashed by professional hitters. Leiter spent nearly the entire 2023 season in Double-A and was getting knocked around constantly as he finished with a 2-6 record and a 5.07 ERA. But after a few good starts in Triple-A in April and several injuries to the Rangers starting rotation, Leiter had his shot in the big leagues. 

In short, Leiter has been throwing batting practice at the MLB level. He has surrendered 13 runs, 15 hits and 2 home runs in 7.2 innings. Those 2 starts were against the Tigers and Athletics, who rank 15th and 23rd in OPS against right-handed pitching. With a .318 xBA, 15% barrel rate and nearly 50% hard-hit rate, Leiter is not ready for the bright lights of Major League Baseball. Tonight he will face a Guardians offense that has scored 7 runs in back-to-back games. Expect the Cleveland lineup to continue mashing Leiter.

Read our full Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers predictions

Dylan Cease, SD, Under 8.5 strikeouts (-105)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing

I know Dylan Cease has been incredible this season and he is facing the Rockies tonight. Normally I would be all over this matchup for Cease. However, setting his strikeout line at 8.5 is too high. I expected the line to be 7.5, but it appears the oddsmakers have added another strikeout because it’s the Rockies. With that said, the Rockies are hot right now. It feels weird to say that, but Colorado has won 5 straight games. During that span no pitcher has been able to reach 9 strikeouts against the Rockies’ lineup. Colorado has been putting the ball in play more and not getting down in the count as often. Combine that with Cease going over this mark just once in 8 starts and I’m expecting the San Diego ace to finish with 7 or 8 punchouts.

Don’t miss our baseball expert’s MLB mega parlay for today’s action at +750 odds

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