Best MLB player props for Tuesday's slate: McKenzie to stifle Twins

Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Triston McKenzie (24) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Kansas City Royals at Progressive Field
Photo of PropBetGuy

PropBetGuy

MLB· 3 days ago

Show Bio

More commonly known as @PropBetGuy on Twitter, Doug Carter has been crunching the numbers on player props for years. He's also a staunch defender of future Hall of Famer, Eli Manning.

With the dust settled on NFL’s week 1, baseball once again takes center stage in the sports world. Every team is in action today, giving us the full gambit of player props from which to choose. Before I get into those, make sure you check out our full game previews and picks if you are looking to wager on any game sides or totals.

Today I’m keying in on two young pitchers, each trending in an opposite direction, hoping to make their mark for their respective team. The focus is on strikeouts, with an emphasis on recent performance.

Triston McKenzie (CLE) over 5.5 strikeouts (-105)

Line available at time of publishing. 

McKenzie has really settled into his own and shown why he’s considered one of baseball top pitching prospects. He has always possessed strikeout stuff, and that shows with his 120 punchouts in 103.1 innings this season. But he’s now showing the ability to abate his control issues and dominate opposing teams. Over his last 6 starts, McKenzie has registered a 1.80 ERA and a 41:4 K:BB ratio. Even including the portion of the season in which he wasn’t as effective, McKenzie has hit this over in 11 of his 19 non-injury-shortened starts.

Over his recent run, McKenzie’s swinging strike rate of 13.8% ranks 18th of 134 starting pitchers with at least 20.0 innings pitched. Possessing 3 strikeout pitches (4-seam fastball, slider and curveball), the lanky hurler is a tough matchup for any opponent.

His matchup this afternoon should be quite tired. Upon delivery of today’s first pitch, the Twins will be playing their third game in a 48-hour span in 3 different cities. That’s a tall task for any team, especially one with the 8th-highest strikeout rate over the last 2 weeks.

Even though a double-header could result in McKenzie being pulled sooner than normal, I still like the young pitcher to reach 6 Ks with ease.

Touki Toussaint (ATL) under 5.5 strikeouts (-138)

Line available at time of publishing. 

With Toussaint coming back from injury, the Braves don’t seem inclined to allow him to pitch deep into games. The right-hander has finished only 3.0 innings in his last 2 outings. And with Drew Smyly fully rested in the bullpen, this reads to me as a potential piggy-back start for the 2 pitchers.

Plus, it’s not as if Toussaint has been racking up the strikeouts as is. He has stayed under this total in 7 of his 9 starts, with less than a strikeout per inning this season. He’ll be matched up tonight against the Rockies, who possess a league-average strikeout rate over the last two weeks. Having just faced Toussaint 2 weeks ago, I expect them to be able to make enough contact in today’s outing.

I’ll bet that either ineffectiveness, a soft pitch count, or the lack of swing-and-miss stuff keeps the young pitcher at bay tonight.

Pickswise is the home of free MLB Picks and Predictions. Check out the latest MLB Prop Bets and MLB Parlays as well as our MLB Best Bets from the experts.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
DraftKings

$200

Bet $1 On Any NFL Football Game & Get $200 In Free Bets Instantly!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account

Bet $1 on any Pro Football game

Instantly get $200 in free bets

BetMGM

$200

Bet $10, Get $200 If Your Team Scores A Touchdown!

Register for a new BetMGM account & deposit $20+

Bet $10 on your team to win Money Line

Win $200 in free bets if your team scores a touchdown

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$150

Bet $5, Win $150 if the Chiefs or Ravens win!

Make a new account with FanDuel Sportsbook

Bet $5 on either the Chiefs or Ravens to win their Week 2 matchup

If your team wins, you win $150 cash!

New players only. Max bet $5. Must be 21+ to play. Full terms available at FanDuel Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$200

Bet $20, Get $200 If Your Team Scores A Touchdown!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit $20+

Bet $20 on your team to win Money Line (NFL or NCAAF)

Win $200 in free bets if your team scores a touchdown

Caesars Sportsbook

$5,000

Get a $5,000 Risk Free Bet + a free NFL Jersey!

Register for a new Caesars Sportsbook account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $5,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $5,000 + a free NFL Jersey

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

TVG

$300

Get a $300 Risk-Free Bet with TVG Racebook!

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $300

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

BetAmerica Racing

$200

$200 Sign Up Bonus!

Fast, reliable and fast payouts - you'll have your money in 72 hours, if not sooner!

Proud history of providing safe, secure, and fun betting to American patrons

BetAmerica is owned by the iconic Churchill Downs Incorporated, home of 150 years of wagering history and the world-famous Kentucky Derby

Players who sign up using ‘BET200’ code will get a $200 sign up bonus. Offer valid for 7 days after registering on BetAmerica Racing product only. 21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign Up Bonus with TwinSpires Racebook!

Register for a new Twinspires account using offer code BET200

Make a deposit and start wagering on horse racing

Earn $100 in bonus cash for every $400 wagered!

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.