Best MLB player prop bet for today, 10/31: A short leash for Andrew Heaney

Texas Rangers pitcher Andrew Heaney (44) reacts after being removed from the game during the first inning in game four of the ALCS against the Houston Astros for the 2023 MLB playoffs at Globe Life Field.
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Javan Shouey


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As the World Series progresses and each game becomes even more intense, the leashes on starting pitchers are likely to become continually shorter. This is especially true for Texas Rangers left-hander Andrew Heaney, who hasn’t thrown more than 22 pitches in over 3 weeks. The southpaw starter is the focus of today’s player prop article for Game 4, let’s dive in!

Make sure to also check out our Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks predictions for Game 4.

Andrew Heaney under 9.5 outs recorded (-135) (lean)

Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds.

This World Series hasn’t shown a ton of value from a betting perspective, in my opinion, leading to me posting a grand total of 0 official plays so far through 3 games. The same can be said in Game 4, but there is a prop that I see a slight edge on in the market that is worth discussing at the very least. Andrew Heaney has his outs recorded prop set at 9.5 in tonight’s game, the lowest total you are likely to see posted on a starting pitcher. Clearly fewer than 10 outs would be a short outing, but I see exactly 3 innings of work as the most likely scenario for the Ranger’s starter in this spot. Heaney hasn’t been as sharp as he was last season with the Dodgers. His FIP and ERA jumped by around a run each while his K-BB% fell from 29.4% to 14.2%, a drastic difference. His barrel rate and walk rate are both at undesirable marks, and any early struggles could lead to a quick hook from veteran manager Bruce Bochy.

Downsides to an under on a line this low include the chance he finds early efficiency. Heaney is not known for being an efficient arm, but it is worth noting that he is typically best the first time through the order. While my assumption is that he sees around 11-12 batters faced depending on the exact order of the lineup, there is always the chance Bochy lets Heaney cook for a bit longer if on his game. Dane Dunning is available in long relief, but having Jon Gray and Martin Perez presumably unavailable, getting 4 innings out of the starter could be the goal. Bochy stated ahead of Heaney’s start against the Astros that he wanted some length from the lefty, but Houston torched him early with 3 runs to his 2 outs recorded.

With only 22 pitches in that start against Houston, and then 4 and 6 pitches in his last 2 respective outings, Heaney is nowhere near stretched out, and there is the chance he reaches 50 or more pitches through 3 frames as is based off his lack of efficiency. Arizona has been worse against left-handed pitching this season, but in their 44 PA against Heaney, they do have 6 walks and 4 home runs. Heaney has historically been worse against right-handed batters, especially in the power department, and after Corbin Carroll bats for a 2nd time, I would expect the left-handed pitcher to get pulled in favor of a right-handed reliever.

Check out our Rangers-Diamondbacks Same Game Parlay (+488!) for Game 4!

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