Best MLB prop bet for Wednesday, 10/11: Austin Riley steps up for Atlanta
The Atlanta Braves completed a much-needed comeback victory in Game 2 of their series with the Philadelphia Phillies to tie it up at 1-1. Now in Philadelphia, the Braves will need to lean on their offense as they tap into the backend of their starting rotation. Austin Riley is very familiar with the matchup at hand and has been a key contributor in big games numerous times before.
We have a player prop on the Braves 3rd baseman for this evening’s matchup. You can also check out our MLB predictions for all tonight’s games. Now let’s dive in!
Austin Riley (ATL) over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-120)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
I have taken very few individual batter props this season relative to the other markets I dabble in, but the hits + runs + RBI market, or HRRBI, has been profitable for me this year. There are numerous pathways to victory in this market and as a result I tend to prefer this angle to a total base market despite the price differential. With Austin Riley we are getting a premier batter slotted into an elite batting position in an all-time historic offense. The Atlanta Braves produced countless team and league records this year and Riley was a key part of their success. The slugging 3rd baseman notched 37 home runs, 32 doubles and 97 RBI this season while producing a 127 wRC+. Riley hits batters of either handedness very well which is crucial in a playoff format where opposing teams are likely to utilize several arms per game. The Phillies are starting right-hander Aaron Nola tonight, a pitcher who Riley has had tremendous success against both this season and across his career.
In 57 career PA against Nola the right-handed batter has hit for a .389 batting average while slugging .759 with 5 home runs and 5 doubles. Among those 5 home runs, 2 came in a single game this season. He has only 3 walks in those plate appearances, which makes sense given Riley’s decreased BB% against RHP and Nola’s decreased BB% against RHB. Overall, Nola has just a 5.7% BB% this season which ranks in the 87th percentile and leads to a ton of balls in play. The Phillies pitcher uses 5 different pitches when facing right-handed batters. His curveball leads the way at 29.3% while his 2 fastballs follow closely behind. Nola uses his 4-seamer and 2-seam sinker 26.7% and 26.2% of the time respectively while his cutter sees 11.1% usage against righties. He sprinkles an occasional changeup in there as well at 6.6% usage. Riley has hit very well against this arsenal from right-handed pitchers this season. The only batting average below .303 that Riley has against any of those pitches is the 4-seam fastball which he hits at .245. Still, the Braves’ 3-hole hitter is fully capable of crushing that offering as he has shown in previous seasons. With a SLG of .516 or higher on Nola’s other 4 offerings, Riley should be in line to see pitches he likes early in tonight’s game.
Riley has recorded over 1.5 HRRBI in 98 of 161 games this season including his Game 2 home run that put Atlanta ahead in the bottom of the 8th inning. Now on the road, Riley has a higher chance of increased plate appearances, and despite a slightly lower batting average on the road this season, the 3rd baseman has actually seen an increased hit rate with 2 or more HRRBI in 50/80 road games. Ronald Acuna Jr. has a good shot of getting on base ahead of Riley given his .411 OBP in 56 career PA against Nola. We know about his stolen base potential as well, which could lead to a runner in scoring position before Riley even takes the plate. Even if the hitters in front of Riley aren’t producing, he could get driven in by RBI leader Matt Olson, who is typically slotted directly behind him. Other middle to bottom of the order pieces have had extremely productive seasons as well and with Atlanta’s team total set at 4.5 I expect Riley to be a key part of the scoring.
Remember to also take a look at our YRFI/NRFI Best Bet for today’s games