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Best Monday Night Football Prop Bet for Week 14: Jackson regaining his MVP form?

Best Monday Night Football Prop Bet for Week 14:  Jackson regaining his MVP form?

Week 14 concludes on Monday with an AFC North clash between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cleveland Browns. Both teams are currently trailing the division leading Pittsburgh Steelers, but are squarely in the hunt for a wild card spot.

The Ravens come into Cleveland as three point favorites, with a game total of over/under 45.5. Monday Night Football always brings the action, on the field and at the sportsbook. For our expert analysis, check out our picks and full game preview here. We’ve also come up with a same game parlay for Monday Night Football with a huge +3364 payout, as well as all the best advice for your daily fantasy lineup.

On the homefront, it’s been a successful week so far with player props. Always looking to finish the week strong, I’m keying in on the Ravens quarterback, hoping last week’s big game versus the Cowboys proves to be a sign of good things to come.

Lamar Jackson over 54.5 rushing yards

Playable up to 57.5 rushing yards

On the surface, Jackson has hit this number in seven of twelve games this year, and he’s avergaing 56 yards per game. So yes, this play is right on average. The key is trying to figure out when Jackson likes to run. There is one trend I’ve identified in the past: Jackson likes to run the ball in closer games, or when the Ravens are losing.  To break it down:

  • Jackson’s rush yards per game when Ravens have won by <10 points or lost: 79.8 yards per game for his career, 72.4 yards per game in 2020
  • Jackson’s rush yards per game when Ravens have won by >10 points:  66 yards per game for his career, 51 yards per game in 2020

Yes, the Ravens beat the Browns 38-6 in Week 1, but the Browns have gone 9-2 since then. The Browns’ only loss at home was Week 8 versus the Raiders, which was severely impacted by the wind. The Ravens do come in as three-point favorites here, but with the current trajectory of the two teams, I fully expect this game to be close.

The Browns are adequate against the run. They allow the eighth fewest rush yards per game (104.3), and the eleventh fewest yards per carry (4.1). However, 98 percent of Jackson’s rushing production comes on scrambles, runs off either edge or runs between his right guard and right tackle. On those runs, the Browns allow 4.7 yards per carry, which would be third-worst in the NFL. So, there are vulnerabilities in the defense where Jackson will be running.

Conclusion

After an early stretch where Jackson shied away from the run, he’s averaged 13.2 carries in his last five games. At his averages this season, just ten rush attempts would hit this over. I like the Browns to keep this one close, and for Lamar to hit the ground running. I have his yardage projected in the low 70s.

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Last updated: Mon 14th December 2020

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